[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 May 22 issued 2331 UT on 14 May 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 15 09:31:04 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 MAY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 15 MAY - 17 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 May: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 May: 153/108
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 May 16 May 17 May
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 154/109 150/105 148/102
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-May was at R0 level with
several C-class flares. There are currently five numbered regions
on the solar visible disk. Region 3007(S23W07) has simplified,
while regions 3011(N12E64) and 3010(S14E51) have shown increase.
All other regions remained relatively stable. Solar activity
is expected to be at R0-R1 levels on 15-17 May with a slight
chance of R2 level. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the
available imagery. On UT day 14 May, solar wind parameters were
slightly enhanced, most likely from 10 May CME. The solar wind
speed varied between 320-420 Km/s. The peak total interplanetary
magnetic field(IMF Bt) was 20 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) varied between -6 and 13 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to continue to be slightly enhanced today, 15 May. The solar
wind speed is expected to be further enhanced from 16 May due
to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 May: G0
Estimated Indices 14 May : A K
Australian Region 3 21110211
Darwin 5 21111222
Learmonth 4 22120211
Alice Springs 3 22100211
Gingin 2 11100211
Canberra 2 11100211
Hobart 2 11100111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 May :
Macquarie Island 1 11110000
Casey 6 23221120
Mawson 7 32312112
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 May : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 May : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7 2111 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 May 10 G0
16 May 15 G0-G1
17 May 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in both the
Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 14-May. G0 conditions
are likely for the Australian region during 15-17 May with G1
(minor) levels possible on 16 May due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 May Normal Normal Normal
16 May Normal Normal Normal
17 May Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for 15-17 May. Short-wave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 May 81
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 77
May 51
Jun 54
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 May 80 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
16 May 70 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
17 May 70 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 14-May were
near monthly predicted values to mildly enhanced. Spread-F was
observed at Hobart between 08-16 UT. MUFs are expected to be
mostly near monthly predicted values to slightly enhanced during
15-17 May. Short-wave fadeouts are possible during this period.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 May
Speed: 338 km/sec Density: 6.6 p/cc Temp: 29800 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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