[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 May 22 issued 2330 UT on 01 May 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon May 2 09:30:55 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 MAY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 02 MAY - 04 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 May: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 May: 109/59
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 May 03 May 04 May
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 105/54 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 1-May was at R0, with
C-class flares from region 2994 (beyond the northwest limb) and
2996 (N26W79). Several coronal mass ejections were observed,
but none is Earth-directed. Solar activity is expected to be
at R0-R1 levels for 2-4 May. The solar wind on 1-May varied between
430-530 km/s, currently around 490 km/s. The total interplanetary
magnetic field (IMF) strength peaked around 7 nT. The north-south
(Bz) IMF range was +/-5 nT. A CME launched on 29-Apr could result
in mildly disturbed conditions on 2-May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 May: G0
Estimated Indices 01 May : A K
Australian Region 5 22222111
Darwin 5 22222111
Townsville 6 22222112
Learmonth 7 22322211
Alice Springs 5 22222111
Gingin 6 22221222
Canberra 5 22222111
Hobart 6 22222211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 May :
Macquarie Island 6 12233011
Casey 13 34422222
Mawson 24 55532232
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 May : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 18 4532 2422
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 May 12 G0
03 May 8 G0
04 May 8 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 1-May, with G0-G1 conditions in the Antarctic
region. G0 conditions are likely for Australia during 2-4 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 May Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on 1-May. Mostly normal
propagation conditions are expected for 2-4 May, with minor degradations
possible at high latitudes. Short-wave fadeouts are possible
2-4 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 May 83
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 77
May 51
Jun 54
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 May 80 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
03 May 80 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
04 May 80 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 39 was issued on 30
April and is current for 30 Apr to 2 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 1-May were mostly above monthly predicted values.
Spread-F was observed at Hobart 11-20 UT. MUFs are expected to
be 15% above monthly predicted values for 2-4 May, with short-wave
fadeouts possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 9.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 3%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Apr
Speed: 498 km/sec Density: 7.3 p/cc Temp: 243000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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