[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 April 22 issued 2338 UT on 30 Apr 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 1 09:38:44 EST 2022


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 APRIL 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 01 MAY - 03 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Apr:  R3

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  M2.6    0501UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M1.4    0534UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.
  M4.8    0958UT  possible   lower  Mid East/Indian
  X1.1    1347UT  probable   all    European
  M1.9    1947UT  possible   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Apr: 120/72


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 May             02 May             03 May
Activity     R1-R2              R0                 R0
Fadeouts     Possible           None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   110/60             105/54             105/54

COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 30-Apr reached R3, with 
an X-class flare and a few M-class flares from region 2994 (beyond 
the northwest limb). Several coronal mass ejections were observed, 
but none were Earth-directed. Solar activity is expected to be 
at R1-R2 levels on 1-May and R0 for 2-3 May. The solar wind on 
30-Apr varied between 340-570 km/s, currently around 490 km/s. 
The total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength peaked 
early around 11 nT then declined to around 7 nT. The north-south 
(Bz) IMF range was +6/-10 nT. Coronal coronal hole effects have 
waned, but a CME launched 29 May could result in mildly disturbed 
conditions on 2-May.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Apr: G0

Estimated Indices 30 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       8   32322301
      Darwin               6   32221202
      Townsville           9   32322311
      Learmonth           10   33322302
      Alice Springs        8   32322301
      Gingin               9   32321312
      Canberra             8   32331201
      Hobart              10   32332311    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Apr :
      Macquarie Island    19   34452401
      Casey               14   44323222
      Mawson              58   77452326

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra            10   (Quiet)
      Hobart              12   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg        15
           Planetary             19                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             13   3422 3323     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 May    12    G0
02 May    15    G0
03 May    12    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region on UT day 30-Apr, with G0-G3 conditions in the Antarctic 
region. G0 conditions are likely for Australia during 1-3 May.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
02 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
03 May      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on 30-Apr, with minor 
degradations in propagation conditions at high latitudes. Similar 
conditions are expected for 1-3 May, with short-wave fadeouts 
possible 1-May.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Apr    88

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      64
Apr      46
May      49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 May    90    Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
02 May    90    Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
03 May    80    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 39 was issued on 30 
April and is current for 30 Apr to 2 May. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) on UT day 30 Apr were mostly above monthly predicted values. 
Spread-F was observed at Hobart 11-20 UT. MUFs are expected to 
be 15-25% above monthly predicted values for 1-3 May. Short-wave 
fadeouts are possible on 1-May.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   8.1E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  1.1E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Apr
Speed: 509 km/sec  Density:    7.3 p/cc  Temp:   257000 K  Bz:  -2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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