[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 April 22 issued 2338 UT on 30 Apr 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun May 1 09:38:44 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 APRIL 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 01 MAY - 03 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Apr: R3
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.6 0501UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M1.4 0534UT possible lower E. Asia/Aust.
M4.8 0958UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
X1.1 1347UT probable all European
M1.9 1947UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Apr: 120/72
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 May 02 May 03 May
Activity R1-R2 R0 R0
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 110/60 105/54 105/54
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 30-Apr reached R3, with
an X-class flare and a few M-class flares from region 2994 (beyond
the northwest limb). Several coronal mass ejections were observed,
but none were Earth-directed. Solar activity is expected to be
at R1-R2 levels on 1-May and R0 for 2-3 May. The solar wind on
30-Apr varied between 340-570 km/s, currently around 490 km/s.
The total interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) strength peaked
early around 11 nT then declined to around 7 nT. The north-south
(Bz) IMF range was +6/-10 nT. Coronal coronal hole effects have
waned, but a CME launched 29 May could result in mildly disturbed
conditions on 2-May.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 30 Apr : A K
Australian Region 8 32322301
Darwin 6 32221202
Townsville 9 32322311
Learmonth 10 33322302
Alice Springs 8 32322301
Gingin 9 32321312
Canberra 8 32331201
Hobart 10 32332311
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Apr :
Macquarie Island 19 34452401
Casey 14 44323222
Mawson 58 77452326
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 10 (Quiet)
Hobart 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 15
Planetary 19
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 13 3422 3323
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 May 12 G0
02 May 15 G0
03 May 12 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 30-Apr, with G0-G3 conditions in the Antarctic
region. G0 conditions are likely for Australia during 1-3 May.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
02 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on 30-Apr, with minor
degradations in propagation conditions at high latitudes. Similar
conditions are expected for 1-3 May, with short-wave fadeouts
possible 1-May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Apr 88
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 64
Apr 46
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 May 90 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
02 May 90 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
03 May 80 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 39 was issued on 30
April and is current for 30 Apr to 2 May. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 30 Apr were mostly above monthly predicted values.
Spread-F was observed at Hobart 11-20 UT. MUFs are expected to
be 15-25% above monthly predicted values for 1-3 May. Short-wave
fadeouts are possible on 1-May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.1E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Apr
Speed: 509 km/sec Density: 7.3 p/cc Temp: 257000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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