[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 March 22 issued 2337 UT on 30 Mar 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 31 10:37:55 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 MARCH 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 31 MARCH - 02 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
X1.4 1737UT probable all South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Mar: 151/106
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Mar 01 Apr 02 Apr
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 145/99
COMMENT: On UT day 30 Mar, solar activity reached high levels
due to an X-class flare from AR 2975(N12W31) at 30/1737 UT, with
associated Type IV and II radio sweeps and a CME first observed
in STEREO imagery after 30/1753 UT. Flare location and magnitude
indicate a possible geoeffective CME but data is insufficient
at this time for further analysis. A minor proton event is currently
in progress. The grater than 10 Mev proton levels showed a slight
increase(below the threshold). There are currently seven numbered
regions on the visible disk. AR 2975, the most active showed
further development, currently classified a beta-gamma-delta
magnetic class. M-class flares are likely from this region with
a chance of an X-class flare. ARs 2976 (N15W12) and 2978 (S15E40),
both beta-gamma magnetic class have increased over the period.
All other regions remained relatively stable and quiet. Background
X-ray flux is increasing, currently above the C-level. Solar
activity is expected to be moderate for 31 Mar-02 Apr with a
chance of an isolated X-class flare. On UT day 30 Mar, the solar
wind speed was slightly enhanced around 410 Km/s. Interplanetary
magnetic field (IMF) total strength (Bt) peaked at 6 nT. The
north-south IMF component (Bz) varied between +/- 4 nT. Expect
the solar wind speed to remain near current levels until expected
28 Mar CMEs arrival, then a step up in solar wind speed.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Mar: Mostly quiet
Estimated Indices 30 Mar : A K
Australian Region 2 11010112
Darwin 3 11110112
Townsville 5 11120213
Learmonth 5 11110223
Alice Springs 2 11010112
Gingin 3 10010123
Canberra 2 01010112
Hobart 2 11010112
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Mar :
Macquarie Island 1 00120001
Casey 8 33320013
Mawson 14 22110136
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 14
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 1221 3332
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Mar 60 Quiet to major storm with a chance of an isolated
severe storm period.
01 Apr 30 Active to Minor storm with possible major storm
periods.
02 Apr 20 Quiet to active with possible minor storm periods.
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 16 was issued on 30 March and
is current for 31 Mar to 1 Apr. Geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian region were mostly quiet on UT day 30 Mar. mostly
Quiet to unsettled levels were observed in Antarctica. Expect
similar conditions to prevail until expected CMEs arrival in
the coming few hours, then expect an increase to major storm
levels (ASWAS G2) with a chance of an isolated severe storm (ASWAS
G3) period. Active to minor storm with a chance of major storm
periods on 01 Apr due continuing CMES effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Mar Normal-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
01 Apr Normal-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
02 Apr Normal-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
COMMENT: Depressed MUFs are expected for High to mid latitudes
on 31 Mar- 02 Apr due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Possible
shortwave fadeouts on daylight HF circuits over the next few
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Mar 83
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 55% during local day.
Enhanced by 65% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 59
Mar 42
Apr 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Mar 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
01 Apr 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
02 Apr 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 29 was issued on 28
March and is current for 29-31 Mar. SWS Preliminary HF Communications
Warning 30 was issued on 30 March and is current for 31 Mar to
1 Apr. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 30 Mar were
mildly to strongly enhanced. Depressed MUFs are expected for
High to mid latitudes on 31 Mar- 02 Apr due to anticipated geomagnetic
activity. Possible shortwave fadeouts on daylight HF circuits
over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.9E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.3E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Mar
Speed: 419 km/sec Density: 6.6 p/cc Temp: 67300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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