[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 March 22 issued 2337 UT on 30 Mar 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 31 10:37:55 EST 2022


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 MARCH 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 31 MARCH - 02 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED **   MAG:** RED **     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Mar:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
  X1.4    1737UT  probable   all    South American/
                                    Atlantic

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Mar: 151/106


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             31 Mar             01 Apr             02 Apr
Activity     Moderate to high   Moderate to high   Moderate to high
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            150/105            145/99

COMMENT: On UT day 30 Mar, solar activity reached high levels 
due to an X-class flare from AR 2975(N12W31) at 30/1737 UT, with 
associated Type IV and II radio sweeps and a CME first observed 
in STEREO imagery after 30/1753 UT. Flare location and magnitude 
indicate a possible geoeffective CME but data is insufficient 
at this time for further analysis. A minor proton event is currently 
in progress. The grater than 10 Mev proton levels showed a slight 
increase(below the threshold). There are currently seven numbered 
regions on the visible disk. AR 2975, the most active showed 
further development, currently classified a beta-gamma-delta 
magnetic class. M-class flares are likely from this region with 
a chance of an X-class flare. ARs 2976 (N15W12) and 2978 (S15E40), 
both beta-gamma magnetic class have increased over the period. 
All other regions remained relatively stable and quiet. Background 
X-ray flux is increasing, currently above the C-level. Solar 
activity is expected to be moderate for 31 Mar-02 Apr with a 
chance of an isolated X-class flare. On UT day 30 Mar, the solar 
wind speed was slightly enhanced around 410 Km/s. Interplanetary 
magnetic field (IMF) total strength (Bt) peaked at 6 nT. The 
north-south IMF component (Bz) varied between +/- 4 nT. Expect 
the solar wind speed to remain near current levels until expected 
28 Mar CMEs arrival, then a step up in solar wind speed.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Mar: Mostly quiet

Estimated Indices 30 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11010112
      Darwin               3   11110112
      Townsville           5   11120213
      Learmonth            5   11110223
      Alice Springs        2   11010112
      Gingin               3   10010123
      Canberra             2   01010112
      Hobart               2   11010112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     1   00120001
      Casey                8   33320013
      Mawson              14   22110136

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary             14                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8   1221 3332     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
31 Mar    60    Quiet to major storm with a chance of an isolated 
                severe storm period.
01 Apr    30    Active to Minor storm with possible major storm 
                periods.
02 Apr    20    Quiet to active with possible minor storm periods.

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 16 was issued on 30 March and 
is current for 31 Mar to 1 Apr. Geomagnetic conditions in the 
Australian region were mostly quiet on UT day 30 Mar. mostly 
Quiet to unsettled levels were observed in Antarctica. Expect 
similar conditions to prevail until expected CMEs arrival in 
the coming few hours, then expect an increase to major storm 
levels (ASWAS G2) with a chance of an isolated severe storm (ASWAS 
G3) period. Active to minor storm with a chance of major storm 
periods on 01 Apr due continuing CMES effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
30 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Mar      Normal-fair    Poor-fair      Poor-fair
01 Apr      Normal-fair    Poor-fair      Poor-fair
02 Apr      Normal-fair    Poor-fair      Poor-fair

COMMENT: Depressed MUFs are expected for High to mid latitudes 
on 31 Mar- 02 Apr due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. Possible 
shortwave fadeouts on daylight HF circuits over the next few 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
30 Mar    83

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 55% during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
    Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
    Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      59
Mar      42
Apr      44

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
31 Mar    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                20%
01 Apr    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%
02 Apr    30    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to 
                30%

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 29 was issued on 28 
March and is current for 29-31 Mar. SWS Preliminary HF Communications 
Warning 30 was issued on 30 March and is current for 31 Mar to 
1 Apr. Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 30 Mar were 
mildly to strongly enhanced. Depressed MUFs are expected for 
High to mid latitudes on 31 Mar- 02 Apr due to anticipated geomagnetic 
activity. Possible shortwave fadeouts on daylight HF circuits 
over the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 29 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.9E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.3E+05
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.30E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: C1.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Mar
Speed: 419 km/sec  Density:    6.6 p/cc  Temp:    67300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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