[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 29 March 22 issued 2331 UT on 29 Mar 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 30 10:31:13 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/29 MARCH 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 29 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 30 MARCH - 01 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 29 Mar: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2.2 0112UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.1 0158UT possible lower West Pacific
M1.0 0938UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.6 2152UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 29 Mar: 149/104
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
30 Mar 31 Mar 01 Apr
Activity Moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 150/105 150/105 150/105
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate on UT day 29 Mar due to
several M-Class flares from region 2975 (N13W18). There are currently
seven numbered regions on the visible disk. Region 2975, the
most active showed further development, currently classified
a beta-gamma-delta magnetic class. Region 2976 (N14E02) the largest,
beta-delta magnetic class, has simplified and remained quiet.
Region 2978 (S17E68),a beta-gamma magnetic class has developed
over the period. All other regions remained relatively stable
and quiet. Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate for
30 Mar-01 Apr with a chance of an isolated X-class flare. The
proton event following the M4 from 28 Mar has ended. A CME was
visible in SOHO and STEREO LASCO coronagraph starting 28/2023UT
following an M1 flare from region 2975 at 28/1920UT. Analysis
and event modelling showed an arrival on 31 Mar. On UT day 29
Mar, the solar wind speed was slightly enhanced around 430 Km/s
due to waning coronal hole effects. Interplanetary magnetic field
(IMF) total strength (Bt) peaked at 5 nT. The north-south IMF
component (Bz) varied between +/- 3 nT. Solar wind conditions
are expected to continue to gradually decline, today 30 Mar.
Solar wind speed is expected to become enhanced from early 31
Mar and expected to continue into 01 April due to influence from
28 Mar CMEs
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 29 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 29 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 21211222
Darwin 5 21211222
Townsville 6 22221122
Learmonth 5 222210--
Alice Springs 5 21211222
Gingin 8 22211332
Canberra 4 11211212
Hobart 5 11212212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 29 Mar :
Macquarie Island 2 01102111
Casey 15 34432322
Mawson 19 23222355
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 29 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 7 (Quiet)
Hobart 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 29 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 4421 2211
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
30 Mar 8 Quiet to Unsettled
31 Mar 60 Quiet to major storm with a chance of a an isolated
severe storm period.
01 Apr 30 Active to minor storm with a chance of major
storm periods,
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 15 was issued on 29 March and
is current for 31 Mar only. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region were quiet on UT day 29 Mar. Quiet to minor storm levels
were observed in Antarctica. Geomagnetic conditions are expected
to be quiet to unsettled on 30 Mar. CMEs impacts are expected
from early 31 Mar. Conditions are expected to reach major storm
levels (ASWAS G2) with a chance of an isolated severe storm (ASWAS
G3) period on 31 Mar. Active to minor storm with a chance of
major storm periods on 01 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Mar Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1315UT 28/03, Ended at 2030UT 28/03
and, 100MeV Proton/PCA Event Began at 1230UT 28/03, Ended at 1450UT 28/03
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Mar Normal Normal Normal
31 Mar Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
01 Apr Normal Fair-normal Fair-normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal to enhanced HF conditions are expected
for 30 Mar. Degradations possible on 31 Mar- 01 Apr. There is
a chance for shortwave fadeouts on daylight HF circuits over
the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
29 Mar 78
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 55% during local day.
Enhanced by 95% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 59
Mar 42
Apr 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
30 Mar 85 10 to 30% above predicted monthly values
31 Mar 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
01 Apr 30 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 29 was issued on 28
March and is current for 29-31 Mar. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 29 Mar were mildly to strongly enhanced. Near
monthly predicted values with enhancements are expected for 30
Mar. Mildly to moderately degraded conditions may be experienced
on 31 Mar-01 Apr due to anticipated geomagnetic activity. There
is a chance for shortwave fadeouts on daylight HF circuits over
the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 5.0E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Mar
Speed: 517 km/sec Density: 6.9 p/cc Temp: 119000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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