[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 March 22 issued 2330 UT on 24 Mar 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 25 10:30:52 EST 2022


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 MARCH 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 25 MARCH - 27 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Mar:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Mar: 112/63


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             25 Mar             26 Mar             27 Mar
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   112/63             112/63             112/63

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 24 Mar with a few C-class 
flares. The strongest C8.1 from AR2975 occurred at 24/0145 UT. 
AR2975 is currently located at N12E47 and is growing. The second 
flaring region AR2974 (S21E43) also appears to be growing. Solar 
activity is expected to be low to moderate for the next three 
days (25-27 March), with a chance of more C-class flares and 
remote chance of M-class flares. No earth-directed CMEs were 
detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the last 24 
hours. The solar wind parameters were at mildly elevated levels, 
speed varied between 450 and 550 km/s. These mild enhancements 
were caused by a small equatorial coronal hole. Interplanetary 
magnetic field (IMF) total strength (Bt) peaked at 10 nT. The 
north-south IMF component (Bz) varied between -4 nT and 7 nT. 
The solar wind speed is expected to gradually decline towards 
background level today as the coronal hole effect wanes. From 
late UT day 26 March, the solar wind is expected to enhance again 
as another equatorial coronal hole reaches geoeffective location.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 24 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22222201
      Darwin               6   22122212
      Townsville           6   22222212
      Learmonth            6   32222201
      Alice Springs        5   22122201
      Gingin               8   32223211
      Canberra             6   22123201
      Hobart               7   22233201    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    12   22154101
      Casey               15   35432211
      Mawson              18   54332214

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               8   (Quiet)
      Canberra             2   (Quiet)
      Hobart               6   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        13
           Planetary             15                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   2121 1221     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
25 Mar     7    Quiet
26 Mar    12    Unsettled
27 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet in the Australian 
region on UT day 24 March, with quiet to active periods in the 
Antarctic region. Today, UT day 25 March, Australian conditions 
expected to be mostly quiet with a chance of isolated unsettled 
to active conditions, in response to the coronal hole effects. 
>From late UT day 26 March conditions can become unsettled to 
active in response to another coronal hole reaching geoeffective 
location on the solar disk.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
27 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions expected. Chance of shortwave 
fadeout.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
24 Mar    64

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      59
Mar      42
Apr      44

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
25 Mar    60    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
26 Mar    60    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
27 Mar    55    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 24 Mar were 
near monthly predicted to mildly enhanced levels. Near monthly 
predicted to 15% enhanced MUFs are now expected.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 23 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   4.9E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.7E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B6.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Mar
Speed: 406 km/sec  Density:    8.7 p/cc  Temp:   112000 K  Bz:   4 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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