[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 March 22 issued 2330 UT on 24 Mar 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Mar 25 10:30:52 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 MARCH 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 25 MARCH - 27 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Mar: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Mar: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Mar 26 Mar 27 Mar
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 112/63 112/63 112/63
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 24 Mar with a few C-class
flares. The strongest C8.1 from AR2975 occurred at 24/0145 UT.
AR2975 is currently located at N12E47 and is growing. The second
flaring region AR2974 (S21E43) also appears to be growing. Solar
activity is expected to be low to moderate for the next three
days (25-27 March), with a chance of more C-class flares and
remote chance of M-class flares. No earth-directed CMEs were
detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the last 24
hours. The solar wind parameters were at mildly elevated levels,
speed varied between 450 and 550 km/s. These mild enhancements
were caused by a small equatorial coronal hole. Interplanetary
magnetic field (IMF) total strength (Bt) peaked at 10 nT. The
north-south IMF component (Bz) varied between -4 nT and 7 nT.
The solar wind speed is expected to gradually decline towards
background level today as the coronal hole effect wanes. From
late UT day 26 March, the solar wind is expected to enhance again
as another equatorial coronal hole reaches geoeffective location.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Mar : A K
Australian Region 5 22222201
Darwin 6 22122212
Townsville 6 22222212
Learmonth 6 32222201
Alice Springs 5 22122201
Gingin 8 32223211
Canberra 6 22123201
Hobart 7 22233201
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Mar :
Macquarie Island 12 22154101
Casey 15 35432211
Mawson 18 54332214
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 8 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 6 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 15
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2121 1221
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Mar 7 Quiet
26 Mar 12 Unsettled
27 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet in the Australian
region on UT day 24 March, with quiet to active periods in the
Antarctic region. Today, UT day 25 March, Australian conditions
expected to be mostly quiet with a chance of isolated unsettled
to active conditions, in response to the coronal hole effects.
>From late UT day 26 March conditions can become unsettled to
active in response to another coronal hole reaching geoeffective
location on the solar disk.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Mar Normal Normal Normal
26 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions expected. Chance of shortwave
fadeout.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Mar 64
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb 59
Mar 42
Apr 44
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Mar 60 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
26 Mar 60 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
27 Mar 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 24 Mar were
near monthly predicted to mildly enhanced levels. Near monthly
predicted to 15% enhanced MUFs are now expected.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.9E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Mar
Speed: 406 km/sec Density: 8.7 p/cc Temp: 112000 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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