[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 23 March 22 issued 2331 UT on 23 Mar 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 24 10:31:05 EST 2022


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/23 MARCH 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 23 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 24 MARCH - 26 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 23 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 23 Mar: 106/55


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             24 Mar             25 Mar             26 Mar
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   105/54             105/54             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 23 Mar with a few weak 
C-class flares. The recent two C-class flares (C2.5 and C3.0) 
were from the newly numbered Region 2974 (S21E58). Solar activity 
is expected to be low for the next three days (24-26 March), 
with a chance of more C-class flares. No earth-directed CMEs 
were detected in the available coronagraph imagery over the last 
24 hours. The solar wind parameters were near nominal to mildly 
elevated levels, speed varied between 360 and 470 km/s. These 
mild enhancements were possibly caused by a small equatorial 
coronal hole. Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) total strength 
(Bt) peaked at 8 nT. The north-south IMF component (Bz) varied 
between -7 nT and 8 nT. Mild enhancements in solar wind speed 
are expected to continue today, UT day 24 March, as the coronal 
hole effects persist.

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 23 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 23 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       6   22212221
      Darwin               5   22211221
      Townsville           6   22222221
      Learmonth            6   31212221
      Alice Springs        6   22212221
      Gingin               6   21212321
      Canberra             5   21222211
      Hobart               6   22222221    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 23 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     7   11341210
      Casey               12   34422221
      Mawson               7   23322210

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 23 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 23 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 22 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              7   2210 1132     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
24 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled
25 Mar     5    Quiet
26 Mar     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were mostly quiet in the Australian 
region on UT day 23 March, with quiet to active periods in the 
Antarctic region. Today, UT day 24 March, Australian conditions 
expected to be at quiet to unsettled levels with a chance of 
isolated active conditions, in response to the coronal hole effects. 
The coronal hole effects are expected to wane from UT day 25 
March.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
23 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
24 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
25 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal
26 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions expected. Low chance of 
shortwave fadeout.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
23 Mar    66

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 65% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      59
Mar      42
Apr      44

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
24 Mar    60    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
25 Mar    60    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
26 Mar    60    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 23 Mar were 
generally enhanced. Near monthly predicted to 15% enhanced MUFs 
are now expected.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 22 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.8E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  6.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 22 Mar
Speed: 334 km/sec  Density:   10.7 p/cc  Temp:    61100 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.




More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list