[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 June 22 issued 2331 UT on 16 Jun 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Fri Jun 17 09:31:29 EST 2022

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JUNE 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 17 JUNE - 19 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jun:  R1 - Minor

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    0353UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jun: 147/101

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Jun             18 Jun             19 Jun
Activity     R0-R1              R0-R1              R0-R1
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   146/100            146/100            144/98

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 16-Jun was at ASWAS R1 level, 
due to an isolated M1.6 flare. Several minor C-class flares were 
also observed. There are nine spotted solar regions on the visible 
disk, with additional region AR3037 and a new small region recently 
emerging in the north-east solar quadrant. Solar region AR3031 
(S25W28 beta-gamma) produced the impulsive M1 flare, no CME appeared 
to be associated with this minor flare event. Region AR3031 appears 
to be in decline. Solar region AR3030 (N20W15 beta) appears to 
show some development over the past 24 hours. Other regions are 
currently stable or relatively insignificant. Solar activity 
is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 17-19 Jun. No significant 
Earth directed CMEs have been observed. The solar wind speed 
on 16-Jun was elevated, ranging between 510-614km/s. The peak 
total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 
nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +7 to -6 
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated over 
17-19 Jun due to the combined effects of an equatorial coronal 
hole and declining CME effects, with an overall declining trend.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jun: G0

Estimated Indices 16 Jun : A   K           
   Australian Region       7   13232112
      Darwin               7   13232112
      Learmonth            7   12332112
      Alice Springs        7   13232112
      Gingin               8   23232112
      Canberra             6   12232112
      Hobart               6   12132112    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jun :
      Macquarie Island    10   11153112
      Casey               13   24432123
      Mawson              34   45544236

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jun : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               6   (Quiet)
      Canberra             6   (Quiet)
      Hobart              18   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jun : A 
           Fredericksburg        11
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jun :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        18
           Planetary             20   2434 4433     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Jun    10    G0
18 Jun     8    G0
19 Jun     5    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
region, with G2 conditions observed in the Antarctic region.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Jun      Normal         Fair-normal    Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
18 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
19 Jun      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly near normal HF propagation conditions. Mildly 
degraded conditions observed middle to high latitudes just before 
dawn on 16 Jun. Mostly normal conditions expected for the next 
three days, with mildly degraded conditions possible during local 
night hours for middle to high latitudes.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
16 Jun    69

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 45% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
May      79
Jun      57
Jul      59

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Jun    70    Near predicted monthly values
18 Jun    70    Near predicted monthly values
19 Jun    70    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 16-Jun were 
mostly near monthly predicted values. Strong spread-F was observed 
at some sites just before dawn. MUFs are expected to be mostly 
near predicted monthly values over 17-19 Jun, with mild degradations 
possible during local night hours.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Jun
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+07
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  5.9E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jun
Speed: 582 km/sec  Density:   10.1 p/cc  Temp:   407000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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