[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 June 22 issued 2330 UT on 14 Jun 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Jun 15 09:30:49 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 JUNE 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 JUNE AND FORECAST FOR 15 JUNE - 17 JUNE
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Jun: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Jun: 146/100
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Jun 16 Jun 17 Jun
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 146/100 146/100 144/98
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-Jun was at R0 level, with
several C-class flares. Regions AR3031 (S20W11, gamma) and AR3033
(N16E40, beta-gamma) are the most complex regions, the former
of which was responsible for several higher level C-class flares
(C4.8, C8.5, C8.6) and is unstable, having increased in both
area and spot count. There are currently seven numbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk, with AR3030 (N20E10, beta), AR3033
and AR3036 (S17W53, beta) showing some spot development over
the last 24 hours. The remaining regions are either stable or
in decay. Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over
15-17 Jun. Several CMEs were observed, but none are considered
to be geoeffective. A partial halo CME was observed, visible
in LASCO C2 imagery from 14/0125UT, and is considered a farside
event. The solar wind speed on 14-Jun was slightly elevated,
ranging between 434-524 km/s, and is currently near 480 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF, Bt)
was 8 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +8
to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated
over 15-17 Jun due to the combined effects of an equatorial coronal
hole and the anticipated arrival of a CME first observed on 13-Jun.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Jun: G0
Estimated Indices 14 Jun : A K
Australian Region 5 22211211
Darwin 5 22211211
Learmonth 5 22211212
Alice Springs 4 21211211
Gingin 5 22211212
Canberra 3 21111111
Hobart 3 11111111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Jun :
Macquarie Island 1 00021000
Casey 7 23321112
Mawson 13 22322225
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Jun :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 8 (Quiet)
Hobart 16 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jun : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Jun : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 12 4422 2322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Jun 37 G0-G1, chance of G2.
16 Jun 17 G0, slight chance of G1.
17 Jun 5 G0
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 27 was issued on 14 June and
is current for 15-16 Jun. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in both the Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 14-Jun.
G0-G1 with a chance of G2 conditions are expected from early
15-Jun due to the anticipated arrival of a CME first observed
on 13-Jun. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to settle back
to G0 level over 16-17 Jun.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Jun Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jun Fair Fair-poor Poor
16 Jun Normal Normal-fair Fair
17 Jun Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Degraded HF propagation conditions are expected on 15-Jun
due the anticipated arrival of a CME first observed on 13-Jun,
with conditions expected to return to normal over 16-17 Jun.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Jun 64
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
May 79
Jun 57
Jul 59
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Jun 40 Near predicted monthly values/depressed to 20%
16 Jun 55 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jun 65 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 47 was issued on 13
June and is current for 13-15 Jun. SWS Preliminary HF Communications
Warning 48 was issued on 14 June and is current for 14-16 Jun.
Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 14-Jun were mostly
near monthly predicted values. Spread-F was observed at Hobart
during local night hours. Degraded conditions are expected on
15-Jun due to the anticipated arrival of a CME first observed
on 13-Jun, with depressions at times to 20% below predicted monthly
values at mid to high latitudes. MUFs are expected to return
to near monthly predicted values over 16-17 Jun.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Jun
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.8E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Jun
Speed: 495 km/sec Density: 9.1 p/cc Temp: 413000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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