[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 July 22 issued 2330 UT on 16 Jul 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Jul 17 09:30:53 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 JULY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 17 JULY - 19 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Jul: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.1 0629UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M1.4 1539UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Jul: 176/130
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
17 Jul 18 Jul 19 Jul
Activity R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 165/119 160/114
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 16-Jul was at the R1 level
with two M-class flares. An M1.1 flare occurred at 16/0629UT,
produced by AR3057 (N15W00, beta), and an M1.4 flare occurred
at 16/1530UT, produced by AR3055 (S16W63, beta). There are currently
seven numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk and two unnumbered
sunspot regions. AR3056 (S19W15, beta-delta) is the most complex
and has shown spot development, as have AR3058 (N14E47, gamma)
and AR3059 (S09E62, beta). Two new sunspot regions have appeared
on the solar disk, SN02 (N23W22, beta) and SN03 (S15E33, alpha).
All other regions are stable or in decay. Solar activity is expected
to be at the R1 level over 17-19 Jul, with a chance of R2. A
triplet of concurrent CMEs are visible in STEREO-A and LASCO
C2 imagery from 16/1723UT, none are considered to be geoeffective.
A southwestern CME follows a filament eruption visible from 16/1625UT
in SDO and H-Alpha imagery around S38E60. A western CME follows
a smaller filament eruption visible from 16/1618UT in SDO and
H-Alpha imagery around N15E50. A northeastern CME does not appear
to follow any eruption visible on the solar disk and is considered
to be farside. A filament eruption is visible on H-Alpha and
SDO imagery from 16/0330UT around N30W05. There is no associated
geoeffective CME visible in available imagery. The solar wind
speed on 16-Jul ranged between 370-603 km/s and is showing a
declining trend. The current speed is around 390 km/s, however
instrument issues are affecting accuracy. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 7 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +4 to -6 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to decline to near background levels over 17-19 Jul. An increase
in speed is possible on 19-Jul due to the impact of a CME first
observed on 15-Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 16 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 12220000
Darwin 2 12210001
Learmonth 4 22320000
Alice Springs 2 12210001
Gingin 3 22220000
Canberra 3 12220000
Hobart 2 11220000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Jul :
Macquarie Island 2 11220000
Casey 6 23221021
Mawson - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 10 2301 2333
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
17 Jul 7 G0
18 Jul 7 G0
19 Jul 18 G0, chance of G1
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in both the
Australian and Antarctic regions over UT day 16-Jul. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 17-18 Jul. G0, with a chance of
G1 conditions are expected on UT day 19-Jul due to the impact
of a CME, first observed on 15-Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal
19 Jul Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 17-19 Jul. Degraded HF conditions are possible on 19-Jul
due to the impact of a CME first observed on 15-Jul. Shortwave
fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
16 Jul 85
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 50% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 60
Jul 65
Aug 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
17 Jul 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
18 Jul 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
19 Jul 85 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 55 was issued on 14
July and is current for 15-17 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 16-Jul were near monthly predicted values. Spread-F
was observed across the Australian region during local night.
Significantly enhanced HF conditions were observed at Cocos Island
during local day. MUFs are expected to be near monthly predicted
values over 17-19 Jul. Degraded HF conditions for southern Australian
region are possible on 19-Jul due to the impact of a CME first
observed on 15-Jul. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 15 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Jul
Speed: 567 km/sec Density: 12.0 p/cc Temp: 747000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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