[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 July 22 issued 2330 UT on 15 Jul 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Jul 16 09:30:59 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 JULY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 JULY AND FORECAST FOR 16 JULY - 18 JULY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Jul: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Jul: 171/125
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Jul 17 Jul 18 Jul
Activity R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 170/124 165/119 165/119
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 15-Jul was at the R0 level
with C-class flaring. There are currently six numbered sunspot
regions on the solar disk. AR3056 (S19W00, beta-delta), AR3057
(N15E14, beta) and AR3058 (N14E61, beta-gamma) have shown spot
development, AR3058 was responsible for the largest flares over
the 24 hour period. All other regions are stable or in decay.
A new region AR3059 (S09E77, beta) has recently rotated onto
the solar disk. Solar activity is expected to be at the R1 level
over 16-18 Jul, with a chance of R2. A northwest partial-halo
CME was observed from 15/1609UT in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A imagery,
it follows a filament eruption visible from 15/1313UT in H-Alpha
and SDO imagery around N25W10. Modelling indicates there is a
geoeffective component which will impact Earth in the second
half of 19-Jul. No other geoeffective CMEs were observed. The
solar wind speed on 15-Jul ranged between 534-587 km/s and is
currently near 570 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field
strength (IMF, Bt) was 8 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +4 to -7 nT. Bz was consistently mildly southward
from 15/1409 to 15/2145UT. The solar wind speed is expected to
remain elevated due to ongoing coronal hole effects with a declining
trend to near background levels over 16-18 Jul.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Jul: G0
Estimated Indices 15 Jul : A K
Australian Region 3 11001122
Darwin 2 10001022
Learmonth 3 11011122
Alice Springs 3 11001122
Gingin 3 10001222
Canberra 2 00001022
Hobart 2 01001122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Jul :
Macquarie Island 2 01001221
Casey 8 23221123
Mawson - --------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Jul :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Jul : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Jul : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 1101 1223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Jul 8 G0
17 Jul 5 G0
18 Jul 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in both the
Australian and Antarctic regions over UT day 15-Jul. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 16-18 Jul. An increase in geomagnetic
activity is expected on 19-Jul due to a CME first observed on
15-Jul.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Jul Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Jul Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Jul Normal Normal Normal
18 Jul Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
over 16-18 Jul. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Jul 82
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 40% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jun 60
Jul 65
Aug 67
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
17 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
18 Jul 80 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 55 was issued on 14
July and is current for 15-17 Jul. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 15-Jul were near monthly predicted values. Spread-F
was observed across the Australian region during local night.
MUFs are expected to be near monthly predicted values over 16-18
Jul. Shortwave fadeouts are probable.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Jul
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 9.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Jul
Speed: 570 km/sec Density: 11.5 p/cc Temp: 730000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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