[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 30 January 22 issued 2336 UT on 30 Jan 2022
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Jan 31 10:36:53 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 JANUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 31 JANUARY - 02 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Jan: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 29/2347UT possible lower West Pacific
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Jan: 130/84
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Jan 01 Feb 02 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 132/86 132/86 135/89
COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate on UT day 30 January. The
most significant flare of the period was a long duration M1 flare
from region 2936(N17W01), peaking at 29/2332UT. This region is
now classified as Ekc beta-gamma spot group and is likely to
produce further M-class flares over the next few days. There
is also a slight chance of an isolated X-class flare from this
region. Two newly numbered regions have emerged onto the southeast
and northeast limb. Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate
on 31 January-02 February, with a slight chance of an isolated
X-class flare most likely from region 2936. The M1 flare was
associated with a halo CME first observed at 29/2336UT by SOHO
LASCO C2 imagery. It is expected to impact Earth from late on
1-February to mid 2-February. On UT day 30 January, the solar
wind speed remained enhanced, between 450- 560 km/s due to coronal
hole effects. The total IMF(Bt) varied around 5 nT and the north-south
IMF (Bz) range was +/-4 nT. Enhanced solar wind speeds are likely
to decrease today, 31 January as current coronal hole effects
wane. A further enhancement is possible late on February 1 due
to another coronal hole. The CME from the M1 flare is expected
to further enhance the solar wind speed from late on 1-February
to mid 2-February.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 30 Jan : A K
Australian Region 6 11223212
Darwin 6 11123212
Townsville 7 12223212
Learmonth 6 11223212
Alice Springs 7 12223212
Gingin 6 21123212
Canberra 8 32333100
Hobart 6 11223212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Jan :
Macquarie Island 8 12224211
Casey 20 45433223
Mawson 19 34333235
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 14 3333 4111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Jan 10 Quiet to Unsettled
01 Feb 20 Quiet to active with possible minor - major storm
periods.
02 Feb 50 Active to major storm
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet to unsettled on UT day 29 January. Minor storm levels were
observed in Antarctica. The observed mildly disturbed conditions
were due to the coronal hole effects. Mostly quiet to unsettled
conditions are likely today, 31 January as current coronal hole
effect wanes. Quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 01
February with possible active periods due an other coronal hole
effects. Geomagnetic activity is expected to reach Major storm
levels from late on 1-February to mid 2-February due the CME
impacts.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Jan Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jan Normal Normal Normal
01 Feb Normal Normal Normal
02 Feb Normal-fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
COMMENT: Normal HF conditions are expected on 31 January-1 February.
Possible degraded HF propagation conditions on 02 February due
to expected increase in geomagnetic activity. Possible shortwave
fadeouts on daylight HF circuits over the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Jan 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 34
Jan 36
Feb 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Jan 55 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
01 Feb 55 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
02 Feb 15 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian regional maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
were near predicted monthly to enhanced values on 30 January.
Mostly normal HF conditions expected for the next tow UT days,
31 January- 01 February. Depressed MUFs are possible from 02
February due to expected increase in geomagnetic activity. Possible
shortwave fadeouts on daylight HF circuits over the next few
days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Jan
Speed: 502 km/sec Density: 10.2 p/cc Temp: 367000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list