[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 February 22 issued 2331 UT on 25 Feb 2022

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 26 10:31:19 EST 2022


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 FEBRUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 FEBRUARY - 28 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Feb:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Feb:  96/43


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Feb             27 Feb             28 Feb
Activity     Low                Low                Low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    95/41              94/40              93/38

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 25 Feb, with one 
C-class flare (C5.1) from the southeast limb. Solar activity 
is expected to be low for the next three UT days, 26-28 Feb with 
a chance of more C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were 
observed in the available imagery. On UT day 25 Feb, the solar 
wind speed was in the range of 390 km/s to 490 km/s. The interplanetary 
magnetic field (IMF) strength peaked at 7 nT and the IMF north-south 
component (Bz) ranged between +/-5 nT. The solar wind speed is 
expected to be near its background levels today, UT day 25 Feb. 
The solar wind is expected to enhance from UT day 26 Feb due 
to small patchy equatorial coronal holes reaching geoeffective 
location on the solar disk.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Feb: Quiet

Estimated Indices 25 Feb : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   22222001
      Darwin               3   11222001
      Townsville           6   22232002
      Learmonth            4   22222001
      Alice Springs        4   12222001
      Gingin               4   21222001
      Canberra             2   11221000
      Hobart               6   22233000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Feb :
      Macquarie Island    11   12353000
      Casey               13   34432112
      Mawson              13   43332014

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Feb : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A 
           Fredericksburg         9
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              5   2320 0002     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Feb     6    Quiet
27 Feb    12    Unsettled
28 Feb     8    Quiet to Unsettled

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
mostly quiet on UT day 25 Feb. Quiet to active levels were observed 
in Antarctica. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly 
quiet today (26 Feb) with chance of isolated unsettled conditions. 
Conditions are expected to reach unsettled levels with a chance 
to active periods from late 26 Feb due to weak coronal hole effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 Feb      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF condition expected over the next three 
days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Feb    71

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jan      46
Feb      38
Mar      41

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Feb    60    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
27 Feb    60    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Feb    60    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Australian regional maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) 
were near the predicted monthly to mildly enhanced values on 
25 Feb. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly 
to mildly enhanced values on 26-28 Feb.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Feb
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.5E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.1

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Feb
Speed: 462 km/sec  Density:    6.7 p/cc  Temp:   160000 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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