[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 February 22 issued 2331 UT on 25 Feb 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Feb 26 10:31:19 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 FEBRUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 26 FEBRUARY - 28 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Feb: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Feb 27 Feb 28 Feb
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 95/41 94/40 93/38
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 25 Feb, with one
C-class flare (C5.1) from the southeast limb. Solar activity
is expected to be low for the next three UT days, 26-28 Feb with
a chance of more C-class flares. No Earth-directed CMEs were
observed in the available imagery. On UT day 25 Feb, the solar
wind speed was in the range of 390 km/s to 490 km/s. The interplanetary
magnetic field (IMF) strength peaked at 7 nT and the IMF north-south
component (Bz) ranged between +/-5 nT. The solar wind speed is
expected to be near its background levels today, UT day 25 Feb.
The solar wind is expected to enhance from UT day 26 Feb due
to small patchy equatorial coronal holes reaching geoeffective
location on the solar disk.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 25 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 22222001
Darwin 3 11222001
Townsville 6 22232002
Learmonth 4 22222001
Alice Springs 4 12222001
Gingin 4 21222001
Canberra 2 11221000
Hobart 6 22233000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Feb :
Macquarie Island 11 12353000
Casey 13 34432112
Mawson 13 43332014
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 5 2320 0002
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Feb 6 Quiet
27 Feb 12 Unsettled
28 Feb 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
mostly quiet on UT day 25 Feb. Quiet to active levels were observed
in Antarctica. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly
quiet today (26 Feb) with chance of isolated unsettled conditions.
Conditions are expected to reach unsettled levels with a chance
to active periods from late 26 Feb due to weak coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF condition expected over the next three
days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Feb 71
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 46
Feb 38
Mar 41
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Feb 60 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
27 Feb 60 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Feb 60 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian regional maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
were near the predicted monthly to mildly enhanced values on
25 Feb. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
to mildly enhanced values on 26-28 Feb.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.5E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.70E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Feb
Speed: 462 km/sec Density: 6.7 p/cc Temp: 160000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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