[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 February 22 issued 2331 UT on 24 Feb 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Feb 25 10:31:20 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 FEBRUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 25 FEBRUARY - 27 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Feb: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Feb: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Feb 26 Feb 27 Feb
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 24 Feb with one
B9 flare from region 2955(N15W37). There are currently two numbered
regions on the visible disk. Region 2955(Cso/Beta) is the most
likely for flaring along with small and simple region 2954(N19E26).
H-Alpha imagery observed two filaments lifting off the southwest
quadrant around 24/0730UT and 24/1842 UT, but yet no associated
CMEs have been discernable in available coronagraph imagery.
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low for the next
three UT days, 25-27 Feb with a slight chance of an isolated
M class flare from region 2955. On UT day 24 Feb, the solar wind
speed continued decreasing, currently around 405 Km/s. The interplanetary
magnetic field (IMF) strength peaked at 7 nT and the IMF north-south
component (Bz) ranged between +/-5 nT. The solar wind speed is
expected to be near background to slightly enhanced levels on
25-27 Feb due mild coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 24 Feb : A K
Australian Region 2 21200001
Darwin 1 11100001
Townsville 3 22110012
Learmonth 3 22200001
Alice Springs 1 11100001
Gingin 1 21100000
Canberra 2 103-0000
Hobart 3 21200002
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Feb :
Macquarie Island 2 12100001
Casey 10 33431012
Mawson 21 55422204
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Feb :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 14 (Quiet)
Canberra 4 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 6 1021 2213
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Feb 10 Quiet to Unsettled
26 Feb 12 Quiet to unsettled with possible isolated active
periods.
27 Feb 12 Quiet to unsettled with possible isolated active
periods.
COMMENT: Magnetic conditions in the Australian region were mostly
quiet on UT day 24 Feb. Minor storm levels were observed in Antarctica.
Possible isolated unsettled to active periods from late 25 Feb
due to weak coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Feb Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Feb Normal Normal Normal
26 Feb Normal Normal Normal
27 Feb Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF condition expected over the next three
days, 25-27 Feb with a slight chance of shortwave fadeouts .
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Feb 52
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 46
Feb 38
Mar 41
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Feb 40 Near predicted monthly values
26 Feb 40 Near predicted monthly values
27 Feb 40 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Australian regional maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
were near predicted monthly to mildly enhanced values on 24 Feb.
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
on 25-27 Feb with a slight chance of isolated shortwave fadeouts.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.4E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Feb
Speed: 480 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 226000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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