[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 February 22 issued 2330 UT on 01 Feb 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Feb 2 10:30:57 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 FEBRUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 FEBRUARY AND FORECAST FOR 02 FEBRUARY - 04 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Feb: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Feb: 129/82
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Feb 03 Feb 04 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 1 February. Solar region
AR2936 (N16W27) has shown a decline area and is now reported
to have returned to a more simple magnetic bipole group. This
region still has some flare potential though this may now be
reduced. Solar region AR2940 (N18E53) was again more active and
produced several C class flares, the largest a C8 at 0736UT.
A solar filament erupted from the southwest solar limb starting
around 2330UT on 01 February. As this was a solar limb event
it is not considered geoeffective. A coronal hole is visible
just to the east of the solar central meridian. On UT day 1 February
a shock was observed in the solar wind at 2137UT, believed to
be associated with the recent M1.1/CME, post shock arrival the
north-south component of the interplanetary magnetic field (IMF
Bz) initially fluctuated northward then turned southward by -12nT
and is now near neutral at the time of issue of this report.
Overall on 01 February the solar wind speed varied between 392-502km/s,
the total IMF(Bt) varied between 13/2nT and the north-south IMF
(Bz) range was +5/-12nT.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Feb: Quiet
Estimated Indices 01 Feb : A K
Australian Region 4 11111013
Darwin 4 11111023
Townsville 5 11112004
Learmonth 6 11211014
Alice Springs 5 11111004
Gingin 5 21212013
Canberra 3 11011003
Hobart 4 11112003
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Feb :
Macquarie Island 4 11112003
Casey 23 35532125
Mawson 8 33222122
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Feb :
Darwin 3 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 2 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 3 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Feb : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10 2323 2232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Feb 50 Minor to Major Storm
03 Feb 20 Active
04 Feb 16 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 6 was issued on 31 January and
is current for 1-2 Feb. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region were quiet on UT day 01 February. Minor storm levels were
briefly observed in Antarctica. Geomagnetic activity is expected
to reach minor to major storm levels on 2 February due to the
arrival of a coronal mass ejection.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Feb Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Feb Fair Fair-poor Fair-poor
03 Feb Fair Poor-fair Poor-fair
04 Feb Normal Fair-normal Fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were fair to normal on UT day 01 February.
HF conditions are expected to be fair to poor on 2 February,
particularly for middle to high latitudes, in association with
geomagnetic activity from a recent CME. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible on daylight HF circuits over the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Feb 61
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jan 46
Feb 38
Mar 41
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Feb 40 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
20%
03 Feb 15 Depressed 20 to 30%/near predicted monthly values
04 Feb 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 10 was issued on 30
January and is current for 31 Jan to 2 Feb. SWS Preliminary HF
Communications Warning 11 was issued on 31 January and is current
for 2-3 Feb. Australian regional maximum usable frequencies (MUFs)
were near to 20% above predicted monthly values on 1 February.
Degraded HF conditions are expected for today, with regional
MUFs variable due to the onset of geomagnetic activity. Mostly
near predicted monthly values are at this stage expected for
the northern Australian region and depressed conditions are expected
for southern Australian region from later today. Degraded and
depressed conditions are then possible after local dawn on 03
February. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible on daylight
HF circuits over the next few days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 7.90E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 9%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B6.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Jan
Speed: 510 km/sec Density: 9.6 p/cc Temp: 420000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list