[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 January 22 issued 2331 UT on 31 Jan 2022

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 1 10:31:04 EST 2022


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 JANUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 FEBRUARY - 03 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jan:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jan: 130/84


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Feb             02 Feb             03 Feb
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   130/84             130/84             130/84

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 31 January. The moderately 
large solar region AR2936 (N16W14) produce one low level C class 
flare. This region still has flare potential and magnetic complexity 
has been reported to have increased. Solar region AR2940 (N18E66) 
was more active and produced several low level C class flares. 
A weak and slow northwest directed CME was observed in LASCO 
C2 imagery from around 16UT, possibly associated with some prior 
activity from region AR2936 around 15-16UT. An isolated coronal 
hole is visible to the east of the solar central meridian. On 
UT day 31 January, the solar wind speed remained enhanced due 
to coronal hole wind stream effects, wind speed varied between 
445-523km/s with a slight declining trend. The total IMF(Bt) 
varied between 4-6nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range was +4/-5 
nT. The CME from the recent M1 flare is expected to enhance the 
solar wind parameters from late on 1-February to mid 2-February.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 31 Jan : A   K           
   Australian Region       5   22122202
      Darwin               4   11122102
      Townsville           5   22122112
      Learmonth            6   21132202
      Alice Springs        5   21122202
      Gingin               6   21131212
      Canberra             5   23121101
      Hobart               7   22232212    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Jan :
      Macquarie Island    18   23354421
      Casey               12   34332122
      Mawson              19   44433422

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jan : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A 
           Fredericksburg        10
           Planetary             12                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   1331 2112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Feb    20    Initially quiet then possibly reaching storm 
                levels late in the UT day.
02 Feb    50    Storm Levels
03 Feb    16    Initially active then declining to unsettled

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 6 was issued on 31 January and 
is current for 1-2 Feb. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian 
region were quiet to unsettled on UT day 31 January. Minor storm 
levels were briefly observed in Antarctica. Geomagnetic activity 
is expected to reach minor to major storm levels sometime from 
late on 1-February to mid 2-February due the expected arrival 
of a coronal mass ejection.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Jan      Normal         Normal         Fair           

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Feb      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-poor
02 Feb      Normal-fair    Fair-poor      Poor
03 Feb      Fair-normal    Fair           Poor-fair

COMMENT: HF conditions were fair to normal on UT day 31 January. 
HF conditions are initially expected to be fair to normal on 
1 February, possibly becoming degraded late in the UT day, particularly 
for middle to high latitudes. Degraded HF propagation conditions 
are generally expected on 02 February due to anticipated geomagnetic 
storm activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible on daylight HF 
circuits over the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 Jan    70

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
      Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Enhanced by 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Dec      34
Jan      36
Feb      39

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Feb    55    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
02 Feb    25    Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to 
                30%
03 Feb    35    Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 10 was issued on 30 
January and is current for 31 Jan to 2 Feb. Australian regional 
maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near to 45% above predicted 
monthly on 31 January. MUFs are expected to remain near to above 
predicted monthly values for most of the UT day today. Degraded 
conditions may be experienced from late in the UT day 01 February. 
Depressed MUFs, particularly for the southern Australian region, 
are then possible 02-03 February due to an expected increase 
in geomagnetic activity. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible 
on daylight HF circuits over the next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Jan
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   3.6E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jan
Speed: 486 km/sec  Density:    6.7 p/cc  Temp:   217000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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