[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 January 22 issued 2331 UT on 31 Jan 2022
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Feb 1 10:31:04 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 JANUARY 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 JANUARY AND FORECAST FOR 01 FEBRUARY - 03 FEBRUARY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Jan: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Jan: 130/84
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
01 Feb 02 Feb 03 Feb
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 130/84
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 31 January. The moderately
large solar region AR2936 (N16W14) produce one low level C class
flare. This region still has flare potential and magnetic complexity
has been reported to have increased. Solar region AR2940 (N18E66)
was more active and produced several low level C class flares.
A weak and slow northwest directed CME was observed in LASCO
C2 imagery from around 16UT, possibly associated with some prior
activity from region AR2936 around 15-16UT. An isolated coronal
hole is visible to the east of the solar central meridian. On
UT day 31 January, the solar wind speed remained enhanced due
to coronal hole wind stream effects, wind speed varied between
445-523km/s with a slight declining trend. The total IMF(Bt)
varied between 4-6nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range was +4/-5
nT. The CME from the recent M1 flare is expected to enhance the
solar wind parameters from late on 1-February to mid 2-February.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Jan: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 31 Jan : A K
Australian Region 5 22122202
Darwin 4 11122102
Townsville 5 22122112
Learmonth 6 21132202
Alice Springs 5 21122202
Gingin 6 21131212
Canberra 5 23121101
Hobart 7 22232212
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Jan :
Macquarie Island 18 23354421
Casey 12 34332122
Mawson 19 44433422
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Jan :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Jan : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Jan : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 1331 2112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
01 Feb 20 Initially quiet then possibly reaching storm
levels late in the UT day.
02 Feb 50 Storm Levels
03 Feb 16 Initially active then declining to unsettled
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 6 was issued on 31 January and
is current for 1-2 Feb. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region were quiet to unsettled on UT day 31 January. Minor storm
levels were briefly observed in Antarctica. Geomagnetic activity
is expected to reach minor to major storm levels sometime from
late on 1-February to mid 2-February due the expected arrival
of a coronal mass ejection.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Jan Normal Normal Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Feb Normal Normal-fair Normal-poor
02 Feb Normal-fair Fair-poor Poor
03 Feb Fair-normal Fair Poor-fair
COMMENT: HF conditions were fair to normal on UT day 31 January.
HF conditions are initially expected to be fair to normal on
1 February, possibly becoming degraded late in the UT day, particularly
for middle to high latitudes. Degraded HF propagation conditions
are generally expected on 02 February due to anticipated geomagnetic
storm activity. Shortwave fadeouts are possible on daylight HF
circuits over the next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
31 Jan 70
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 45% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Dec 34
Jan 36
Feb 39
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
01 Feb 55 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
02 Feb 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 20 to
30%
03 Feb 35 Depressed 15 to 20%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 10 was issued on 30
January and is current for 31 Jan to 2 Feb. Australian regional
maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) were near to 45% above predicted
monthly on 31 January. MUFs are expected to remain near to above
predicted monthly values for most of the UT day today. Degraded
conditions may be experienced from late in the UT day 01 February.
Depressed MUFs, particularly for the southern Australian region,
are then possible 02-03 February due to an expected increase
in geomagnetic activity. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible
on daylight HF circuits over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 30 Jan
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Jan
Speed: 486 km/sec Density: 6.7 p/cc Temp: 217000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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