[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 30 August 22 issued 2331 UT on 30 Aug 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 31 09:31:07 EST 2022
SUBJ: ASWFC DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/30 AUGUST 2022
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE WEATHER FORECASTING CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 30 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 31 AUGUST - 02 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 30 Aug: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.7 0140UT possible lower West Pacific
M2.1 1929UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 30 Aug: 126/79
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
31 Aug 01 Sep 02 Sep
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 115/66 110/60 110/60
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 30-Aug was at the R1 level,
with three M-class flares. The first flare had a double peak,
at 30/0142UT at M1.7, and at 30/0212UT at M1.5. The next flare
was a long duration M2.1 flare from 30/1929UT. The M-class flares
are all from AR3088, which is currently over the west limb. There
are currently two numbered sunspot regions on the solar disk.
AR3086 (S22W48, beta) has decreased in spot count but grown in
magnetic complexity. AR3089 (S23W05, beta) has decayed. Solar
activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 31-Aug to 02-Sep.
Several CMEs have been observed but none are considered geoeffective.
A large filament in the southern hemisphere began lifting off
the solar disk around 30/1324UT seen in GOES imagery and produced
a southward CME but modelling does not indicate it has a geoeffective
component. A halo CME can be seen in LASCO and STEREO-A imagery
from 30/1824UT but this is considered to be a backside event.
The solar wind was elevated on UT day 30-Aug, ranging from 486
- 671 km/s, and is currently near 570 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 15 nT and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +9 to -7 nT. Bz was weakly southward from 30/0010UT
until 30/0321UT. The solar wind is expected to remain elevated
over 31-Aug to 02-Sep due to a high speed wind stream from a
coronal hole in the southern hemisphere, declining to background
levels by the end of the period.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 30 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 30 Aug : A K
Australian Region 7 23222122
Cocos Island 5 22221022
Darwin 8 23322122
Townsville 8 23322122
Learmonth 9 23332122
Alice Springs 6 22222122
Gingin 8 22232123
Canberra 7 23222122
Hobart 8 13232122
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 30 Aug :
Macquarie Island 10 23243121
Casey 19 54343222
Mawson 30 26533245
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 30 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 13 (Quiet)
Canberra 20 (Quiet)
Hobart 40 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 30 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 11
Planetary 12
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 29 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 12 2432 3232
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
31 Aug 15 G0, chance of G1
01 Sep 15 G0, chance of G1
02 Sep 10 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 30-Aug. Mostly G0 conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of G1 in Casey
and a period of G2 followed by a period of G1 in Mawson. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are mostly expected over 31-Aug to 02-Sep, with a
chance of G1 conditions due to coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
30 Aug Fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
31 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
01 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
02 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mildly degraded HF conditions are possible on 31-Aug
to 02-Sep, particularly during local night hours due to the effects
of a coronal hole high speed wind stream.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
30 Aug 54
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Depressed by 50% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 65
Aug 67
Sep 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
31 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values
01 Sep 55 Near predicted monthly values
02 Sep 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: ASWFC SWF HF Communications Warning 65 was issued on
29 August and is current for 29-31 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 30-Aug were near predicted monthly values to
20% depressed, particularly at local night. Sporadic E was observed
at most sites. Spread-F was observed at most northern Australian
sites. Regional MUFs ar expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly values over 31-Aug to 02-Sep. Mild depressions are possible
over the period due to the effects of a coronal hole high speed
wind stream.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 29 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 6.7E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C2.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 29 Aug
Speed: 492 km/sec Density: 11.0 p/cc Temp: 273000 K Bz: 4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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