[Ips-dsgr] ASWFC Daily Report - 15 August 22 issued 2331 UT on 15 Aug 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Aug 16 09:31:15 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 AUGUST 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 16 AUGUST - 18 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Aug: R1
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.0 1436UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M2.7 1654UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M0.9 1735UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
M1.2 2153UT possible lower East Pacific/
North American
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Aug: 131/85
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Aug 17 Aug 18 Aug
Activity R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2 R1, chance of R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 130/84 130/84 125/78
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 15-Aug was at the R1 level,
with four M-class flares, the largest of which was a M2.7 from
AR3078 (S26W09, beta-delta) at 15/1654UT. There are currently
five numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3078
is the most magnetically complex region and has exhibited considerable
growth over the 24 hour period. AR3079 (S10W53, beta) has shown
spot development, whilst AR3081 (N09E18, beta) has shown growth
in its trailer spots. All other sunspot regions are either stable
or in decay. Two new unnumbered sunspot regions have recently
appeared at S28W16 and S17E10. Solar activity is expected to
be at the R1 level over 16-18 Aug, with a chance of R2. An erupting
filament was observed, visible in GSUVI and H-Alpha imagery from
15/0418UT at S25W40. A subsequent CME was observed in LASCO C2
coronagraph imagery from 15/0512UT. Model runs indicate a glancing
blow to Earth is possible late on UT day 17-Aug, however additional
coronagraph imagery is required to confirm this. Several other
CMEs were observed, but none are considered geoeffective. The
solar wind speed on UT day 15-Aug ranged from 420 to 500 km/s,
and is currently near 425 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 5 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +4 to -4 nT. The solar wind speed is expected
to increase over 16-18 Aug due to the combined effects of a coronal
hole high speed wind stream and the expected arrival on 17-Aug
of three CMEs first observed on 13-Aug, 14-Aug and 15-Aug.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 15 Aug : A K
Australian Region 3 11102300
Darwin 3 11112201
Learmonth - --------
Alice Springs 3 01102300
Gingin 3 21200---
Canberra 4 11003300
Hobart 4 11103300
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Aug :
Macquarie Island 5 10003400
Casey 9 23323301
Mawson 9 13322312
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth NA
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 6 (Quiet)
Canberra 11 (Quiet)
Hobart 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 6 3321 1101
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Aug 8 G0
17 Aug 32 G1, chance of G2
18 Aug 28 G0-G1
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 38 was issued on 14 August and
is current for 17-18 Aug. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 15-Aug. G0
geomagnetic conditions are expected on 16-Aug. G1 geomagnetic
conditions are expected in the Australian region on 17-Aug, with
a chance of G2 due to the combined effects of a coronal hole
high speed wind stream and the expected arrival of three CMEs
first observed on 13-Aug and 14-Aug and 15-Aug. G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions are expected on 18-Aug.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Aug Fair Fair Fair-poor
18 Aug Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected on 16-Aug.
Degraded HF conditions are possible for middle to high latitudes
from 17-Aug, due to the combined effects of a coronal hole high
speed wind stream and the expected arrival of three CMEs first
observed on 13-Aug, 14-Aug and 15-Aug. Shortwave fadeouts are
possible.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Aug 60
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 65
Aug 67
Sep 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Aug 65 Near predicted monthly values
17 Aug 50 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
18 Aug 55 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 59 was issued on 14
August and is current for 15-17 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 15-Aug were mostly near predicted monthly values.
Spread-F was observed at Hobart and Townsville. MUFs are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values on 16-Aug. Mild depressions
are possible for the southern Australian region from 17-Aug due
to the combined effects of a coronal hole high speed wind stream
and the expected arrival of three CMEs first observed on 13-Aug,
14-Aug and 15-Aug.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Aug
Speed: 493 km/sec Density: 6.9 p/cc Temp: 241000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list