[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 14 August 22 issued 2330 UT on 14 Aug 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 15 09:30:57 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/14 AUGUST 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 14 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 15 AUGUST - 17 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 14 Aug: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 14 Aug: 126/79
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
15 Aug 16 Aug 17 Aug
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 124/77 124/77 122/75
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 14-Aug was at the R0 level,
with several C-class flares. There are currently five numbered
sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3076 (S15W20, beta-gamma),
AR3078 (S26E03, beta) and AR3081 (N12E28, beta) have shown spot
development over the 24 hour period. AR3079 (S10W41, beta) was
responsible for the largest C-class flare and has shown decay
in its trailer spots. A new region has appeared on the solar
disk (N22W20, alpha) and is yet to be numbered. AR3074 (S16W55,
alpha) is stable. Solar activity is expected to be at the R0
level over 15-17 Aug, with a chance of R1. A partial halo CME
is visible in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A imagery from 14/1253UT. An
eruption is visible in SDO imagery from 14/1148UT around S20W18.
This is concurrent with a long duration C2.4 flare at 14/1235UT
around AR3076, and a Type II radio burst from 15/1204UT to 15/1219UT.
A disappearing filament is visible in H-Alpha imagery from 14/1223UT
between N19W10 and N18W20. Modelling indicates this CME will
impact Earth on early 17-Aug. Two eruptions associated with AR3078
are visible in GOES SUVI imagery. The first from 14/0327UT is
associated with a southward CME visible in LASCO C2 imagery from
14/0424UT. This CME is not considered geoeffective. The second
eruption is visible from 14/1851UT. No associated CMEs are visible
in available imagery, further analysis will be performed when
more imagery becomes available. No other geoeffective CMEs have
been observed in available imagery. The solar wind speed on UT
day 14-Aug ranged between 468 to 530 km/s, and is currently near
490 km/s. The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF,
Bt) was 6 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was
+5 to -5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to decrease over
15 Aug as coronal hole high speed wind stream effects abate.
The solar wind speed is expected to increase on 16-17 Aug due
to the effects of a high speed wind stream from an equatorial
coronal hole which is expected to rotate into a geoeffective
position and the expected arrival on 17-Aug of CMEs first observed
on 13-Aug and 14-Aug.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 14 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 14 Aug : A K
Australian Region 2 22111000
Darwin 3 22111001
Learmonth 7 2-------
Alice Springs 2 22110000
Gingin 2 22110000
Canberra 2 22111000
Hobart 2 22111000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 14 Aug :
Macquarie Island 2 22110000
Casey 8 33321111
Mawson 14 54422100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 14 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 12 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 14 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 13 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 9 1332 2223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
15 Aug 5 G0
16 Aug 8 G0
17 Aug 30 G1, chance of G2
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
region on UT day 14-Aug. Mostly G0 geomagnetic conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated period of
G1 at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected over 15-16
Aug, G1 geomagnetic conditions are expected in the Australian
region on 17-Aug, with a chance of G2 due to the expected impact
of CMEs first observed on 13-Aug and 14-Aug combined with the
effects of an equatorial coronal hole high speed wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
14 Aug Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Aug Normal Normal Normal
16 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
17 Aug Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected on 15-16 Aug.
Degraded HF conditions are possible for middle to high latitudes
from 17-Aug, due to the expected arrival of CMEs first observed
on 13-Aug and 14-Aug combined with the effects of an equatorial
coronal hole high speed wind stream. Shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
14 Aug 63
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 65
Aug 67
Sep 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
15 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values
16 Aug 60 Near predicted monthly values
17 Aug 45 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 14-Aug were
mostly near predicted monthly values, with mildly depressed conditions
in the Northern Australian region during local night. Spread-F
was observed at Hobart during local night. MUFs are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values over 15-16 Aug. Mildly
degraded conditions are possible for the southern Australian
region from 17-Aug due to the expected arrival of CMEs first
observed on 13-Aug and 14-Aug combined with the effects of an
equatorial coronal hole high speed wind stream.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 13 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 3.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 13 Aug
Speed: 521 km/sec Density: 8.6 p/cc Temp: 395000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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