[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 August 22 issued 2330 UT on 07 Aug 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 8 09:30:52 EST 2022


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 AUGUST 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 08 AUGUST - 10 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Aug:  R0

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Aug: 116/68


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             08 Aug                09 Aug                10 Aug
Activity     R0, slight chance R1  R0, slight chance R1  R0, slight chance R1   
   
Fadeouts     None expected         None expected         None expected
10.7cm/SSN   116/68                112/63                112/63

COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 07-Aug was at the R0 level, 
with no significant flaring activity. There are currently seven 
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3068 (S16W79, 
alpha), AR3072 (S24W65, beta-gamma) and AR3073 (S34W64, beta) 
will all soon rotate over the western limb. AR3075 (N22E53, beta) 
has exhibited minor spot growth. All other sunspot regions are 
either stable or in decay. Two new unnumbered sunspot regions 
have appeared at S22E22 and N27E56 (alpha). Despite the large 
number of sunspot regions, solar activity has been low. Solar 
activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 08-10 Aug, with 
a slight chance of R1. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed. 
The solar wind speed on UT day 07-Aug was elevated due to the 
earlier than anticipated arrival of coronal hole high speed wind 
streams, and ranged from 320 to 605 km/s, and is currently near 
550 km/s with an increasing trend. The peak total interplanetary 
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 14 nT, and the north-south IMF component 
(Bz) range was +10 to -13 nT. A sustained period of southward 
IMF conditions was observed from 07/0330UT to 07/1225UT. The 
solar wind speed is expected to increase over 08-10 Aug due to 
the ongoing effects of coronal hole high speed wind streams.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Aug: G0

Estimated Indices 07 Aug : A   K           
   Australian Region      13   12233334
      Darwin              11   12233333
      Learmonth           15   22233434
      Alice Springs       13   -3233333
      Gingin              16   12234344
      Canberra            13   12233334
      Hobart              14   12234334    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Aug :
      Macquarie Island    24   01355524
      Casey               11   13233323
      Mawson              26   13434364

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Aug : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville          NA
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              21   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            34   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              66   (Active)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A 
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             20                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              3   1000 1111     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
08 Aug    18    G0, chance of G1
09 Aug    14    G0
10 Aug     8    G0

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 35 was issued on 7 August and 
is current for 8-9 Aug. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed 
in the Australian region on UT day 07-Aug. G0-G1 geomagnetic 
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated 
period of G2 at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected 
over 08-10 Aug, with a chance of G1 on 08-Aug due to the ongoing 
effects of coronal hole high speed wind streams.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Aug      Normal-fair    Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
08 Aug      Normal         Normal-fair    Fair
09 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
10 Aug      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected on 08-10 Aug, 
with mild degradations possible on 08-Aug for high latitudes 
due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
07 Aug    54

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Jul      65
Aug      67
Sep      68

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
08 Aug    55    Near predicted monthly values
09 Aug    55    Near predicted monthly values
10 Aug    55    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 07-Aug were 
mostly near predicted monthly values. Spread-F was observed in 
Brisbane. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly 
values over 08-10 Aug, with mild degradations possible on 08-Aug 
due to an increase in geomagnetic activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 06 Aug
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.1E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.3E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B4.5

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Aug
Speed: 344 km/sec  Density:    9.6 p/cc  Temp:    30000 K  Bz:   3 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au



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