[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 August 22 issued 2330 UT on 07 Aug 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Aug 8 09:30:52 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 AUGUST 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 08 AUGUST - 10 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Aug: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Aug: 116/68
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Aug 09 Aug 10 Aug
Activity R0, slight chance R1 R0, slight chance R1 R0, slight chance R1
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 116/68 112/63 112/63
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 07-Aug was at the R0 level,
with no significant flaring activity. There are currently seven
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3068 (S16W79,
alpha), AR3072 (S24W65, beta-gamma) and AR3073 (S34W64, beta)
will all soon rotate over the western limb. AR3075 (N22E53, beta)
has exhibited minor spot growth. All other sunspot regions are
either stable or in decay. Two new unnumbered sunspot regions
have appeared at S22E22 and N27E56 (alpha). Despite the large
number of sunspot regions, solar activity has been low. Solar
activity is expected to be at the R0 level over 08-10 Aug, with
a slight chance of R1. No Earth-directed CMEs have been observed.
The solar wind speed on UT day 07-Aug was elevated due to the
earlier than anticipated arrival of coronal hole high speed wind
streams, and ranged from 320 to 605 km/s, and is currently near
550 km/s with an increasing trend. The peak total interplanetary
field strength (IMF, Bt) was 14 nT, and the north-south IMF component
(Bz) range was +10 to -13 nT. A sustained period of southward
IMF conditions was observed from 07/0330UT to 07/1225UT. The
solar wind speed is expected to increase over 08-10 Aug due to
the ongoing effects of coronal hole high speed wind streams.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 07 Aug : A K
Australian Region 13 12233334
Darwin 11 12233333
Learmonth 15 22233434
Alice Springs 13 -3233333
Gingin 16 12234344
Canberra 13 12233334
Hobart 14 12234334
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Aug :
Macquarie Island 24 01355524
Casey 11 13233323
Mawson 26 13434364
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 34 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 66 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 20
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 3 1000 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Aug 18 G0, chance of G1
09 Aug 14 G0
10 Aug 8 G0
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 35 was issued on 7 August and
is current for 8-9 Aug. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 07-Aug. G0-G1 geomagnetic
conditions were observed in the Antarctic region, with an isolated
period of G2 at Mawson. G0 geomagnetic conditions are expected
over 08-10 Aug, with a chance of G1 on 08-Aug due to the ongoing
effects of coronal hole high speed wind streams.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Aug Normal Normal-fair Fair
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
10 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected on 08-10 Aug,
with mild degradations possible on 08-Aug for high latitudes
due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Aug 54
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 65
Aug 67
Sep 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values
09 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values
10 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 07-Aug were
mostly near predicted monthly values. Spread-F was observed in
Brisbane. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly
values over 08-10 Aug, with mild degradations possible on 08-Aug
due to an increase in geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.1E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.5
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Aug
Speed: 344 km/sec Density: 9.6 p/cc Temp: 30000 K Bz: 3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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