[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 August 22 issued 2331 UT on 06 Aug 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Aug 7 09:31:00 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 AUGUST 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 07 AUGUST - 09 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Aug: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Aug: 116/68
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
07 Aug 08 Aug 09 Aug
Activity R0-R1 R0-R1 R0-R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 118/70 116/68 112/63
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 06-Aug was at the R0 level,
with no significant flaring activity. There are currently five
numbered sunspot regions visible on the solar disk. AR3068 (S16W66,
beta-gamma) is the most magnetically complex region and appears
stable. AR3072 (S24W52, beta) has exhibited spot development.
All other sunspot regions are either stable or in decay. Two
new unnumbered regions have recently rotated onto the solar disk
at N22E70 (alpha) and N16E89 (alpha). Both regions appear stable.
Solar activity is expected to be at R0-R1 levels over 07-09 Aug.
A filament eruption was observed at S45E55, visible in GOES-SUVI
and H-Alpha imagery from 06/0105UT. A subsequent southeast CME
was observed in LASCO C2 coronagraph imagery from 06/0148UT.
Model runs indicate that this CME is not geoeffective. A northeast
CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 imagery from 06/1000UT.
This CME did not appear to be associated with any on disk activity
and is not considered geoeffective. No other Earth-directed CMEs
were observed. An equatorial coronal hole is now in the western
hemisphere and is expected to influence the solar wind speed
in the coming days. The solar wind speed on UT day 06-Aug was
at background levels, and ranged from 320 to 370 km/s, and is
currently near 330 km/s with a declining trend. The peak total
interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 9 nT, and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +9 to -1 nT. The solar wind is expected
to be increase over 07-09 Aug due to the onset of coronal hole
high speed wind streams.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 06 Aug : A K
Australian Region 0 10000000
Darwin 1 00110001
Learmonth 0 10010000
Alice Springs - --------
Gingin 0 10000000
Canberra 0 01000000
Hobart 0 11000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Aug :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 2 22100000
Mawson 2 31100000
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs NA
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 4 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 5 3200 1102
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
07 Aug 5 G0
08 Aug 14 G0
09 Aug 14 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 06-Aug. G0 geomagnetic conditions
are expected over 07-09 Aug, with possible disturbed geomagnetic
activity from 08-Aug due to the onset of coronal hole high speed
wind streams.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Aug Fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Aug Normal Normal Normal
08 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal to mildly degraded HF conditions are expected
on 07-09 Aug, with further degradations possible from 08-Aug
for high latitudes due to coronal hole high speed wind stream
effects.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
06 Aug 47
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 65
Aug 67
Sep 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
07 Aug 50 Near predicted monthly values
08 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values
09 Aug 55 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 06-Aug were
mostly near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed at most
northern Australian sites during local night. Spread-F was observed
in Brisbane and Learmonth. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values in the southern Australian region, with depressions
of 15-20% in the northern Australian region at local night possible
over 07-09 Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 05 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.5E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.70E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B4.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Aug
Speed: 401 km/sec Density: 5.2 p/cc Temp: 67200 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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