[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 August 22 issued 2330 UT on 03 Aug 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Aug 4 09:30:50 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 AUGUST 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 04 AUGUST - 06 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Aug: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Aug: 100/48
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Aug 05 Aug 06 Aug
Activity R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1 R0, chance of R1
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 100/48
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 03-Aug was at the R0 level,
with some C-class flaring. There are currently two numbered sunspot
regions visible on the solar disk. AR3068 (S16W24, beta-gamma)
has increased in magnetic complexity and shown growth in its
trailer spots. AR3071 (S16E56, alpha) appears stable. Solar activity
is expected to be at the R0 level over 04-06 Aug, with a chance
of R1. Several CMEs were observed, but none are considered geoeffective.
A northeast CME was observed, visible in LASCO C2 and STEREO-A
coronagraph imagery from 03/1100UT. This CME is considered a
farside event and not geoeffective. A large solar prominence
is visible on the northeastern limb in H-Alpha imagery, extending
from N15 to N30, however any eruption in the forecast period
would not be geoeffective. The solar wind speed on UT day 03-Aug
was elevated due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects,
and ranged from 490 to 560 km/s and is currently near 500 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 6
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +5 to -5
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be elevated over 04-06
Aug, with a declining trend due to waning coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 03 Aug : A K
Australian Region 5 22211121
Darwin 4 21211111
Learmonth 5 22221121
Alice Springs 5 12211221
Gingin 6 22211231
Canberra 4 22111121
Hobart 5 22121121
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Aug :
Macquarie Island 3 12220110
Casey 9 33222132
Mawson 16 34432242
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 19 (Quiet)
Canberra 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Hobart 31 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 10 3222 1233
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Aug 10 G0
05 Aug 5 G0
06 Aug 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in both the
Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 03-Aug. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 04-06 Aug, with mildly disturbed
conditions possible on 04-Aug due to the effects of a coronal
hole high speed wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Aug Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Aug Normal Normal Normal
06 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal to mildly degraded HF conditions are expected
on 04-06 Aug. Isolated shortwave fadeouts are possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Aug 43
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 35% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 20-30% during local dawn and local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 65
Aug 67
Sep 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Aug 45 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
05 Aug 45 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
06 Aug 45 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 57 was issued on 3
August and is current for 3-5 Aug. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 03-Aug were mostly near predicted monthly values
to 15% depressed at some Australian sites. Spread-F was observed
at several Australian sites. MUFs are expected to be near predicted
monthly values to 15% depressed over 04-06 Aug. Isolated shortwave
fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.2E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Aug
Speed: 496 km/sec Density: 9.8 p/cc Temp: 223000 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
Level 2 Bice Building, Lot Fourteen Precinct, North Terrace, Adelaide SA 5000
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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