[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 August 22 issued 2330 UT on 02 Aug 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Aug 3 09:30:49 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 AUGUST 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 AUGUST AND FORECAST FOR 03 AUGUST - 05 AUGUST
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Aug: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Aug: 98/45
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Aug 04 Aug 05 Aug
Activity R0 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 98/45 98/45
COMMENT: Solar activity on UT day 02-Aug was at the R0 level,
with some C-class flaring. There is currently one numbered sunspot
region visible on the solar disk. AR3068 (S16W10, beta) has shown
trailer spot development over the 24 hour period. A new sunspot
region (S16E70, alpha) has recently rotated onto the solar disk
and is yet to be numbered. Most of the flaring activity occurred
from beyond the southwest limb, most likely from AR3066 (S14W86)
which has recently rotated off the solar disk. Solar activity
is expected to be at the R0 level over 03-05 Aug. Several CMEs
were observed, but none are considered geoeffective. A northwestern
CME was observed in LASCO C2 imagery from 02/0712UT and is considered
to be a farside event. The solar wind speed on UT day 02-Aug
was elevated due to coronal hole high speed wind stream effects,
and ranged from 457 to 543 km/s and is currently near 530 km/s.
The peak total interplanetary field strength (IMF, Bt) was 8
nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +7 to -7
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain elevated over
03-04 Aug due to a high speed solar wind stream from a south
polar coronal hole, the solar wind speed is expected to decrease
on 05-Aug due to waning coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Aug: G0
Estimated Indices 02 Aug : A K
Australian Region 6 22221122
Darwin 5 22221121
Learmonth 6 22221122
Alice Springs 5 22221121
Gingin 5 21220122
Canberra 6 21221222
Hobart 6 22221222
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Aug :
Macquarie Island 4 12220111
Casey 10 33331222
Mawson 25 34342246
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Aug :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville NA
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 44 (Unsettled)
Canberra 54 (Unsettled)
Hobart 67 (Active)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Aug : A
Fredericksburg 9
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Aug : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8 3222 2123
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Aug 14 G0
04 Aug 10 G0
05 Aug 5 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in both the
Australian and Antarctic regions on UT day 02-Aug. G0 geomagnetic
conditions are expected over 03-05 Aug, with mildly disturbed
conditions possible over 03-04 Aug due to the effects of a coronal
hole high speed wind stream.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Aug Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Aug Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Aug Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal to mildly degraded HF conditions are expected
on 03-05 Aug.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Aug 42
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Jul 65
Aug 67
Sep 68
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Aug 45 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
04 Aug 45 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
05 Aug 50 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 02-Aug were
mostly near predicted monthly values to 15-30% depressed at some
Australian sites. Spread-F was observed at several Australian
sites. MUFs are expected to be near predicted monthly values
to 15% depressed over 03-04 Aug and near predicted monthly values
over 05-Aug.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Aug
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.3E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Aug
Speed: 488 km/sec Density: 5.9 p/cc Temp: 169000 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Australian Space Weather Forecasting Centre
Bureau of Meteorology
Level 2 Bice Building, Lot Fourteen Precinct, North Terrace, Adelaide SA 5000
ASWFC at bom.gov.au
www.bom.gov.au | www.sws.bom.gov.au
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