[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 April 22 issued 2330 UT on 25 Apr 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Apr 26 09:30:52 EST 2022


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 APRIL 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 26 APRIL - 28 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Apr:  R1

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    0402UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Apr: 157/111


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             26 Apr             27 Apr             28 Apr
Activity     R1-R2              R1-R2              R1-R2
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   160/114            160/114            140/94

COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 25-Apr was at R1 level 
with two low-level M-class flares and a few C-class flares. The 
M-class flares were from Region 2995 and 2993, respectively. 
The C-class flares were from Regions AR2993 and AR2994. These 
two solar Regions are showing potential to produce M-class flares. 
Solar activity is expected to be in the R1-R2 (minor-moderate) 
range, with a slight chance of an isolated R3 (strong) event 
on 26-28 Apr. No Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available 
coronagraph imagery. The solar wind speed range on 25 Apr was 
410-510 km/s. The peak total interplanetary magnetic field strength 
(IMF Bt) was 6 nT, and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range 
was +5/-5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain at mildly 
elevated levels on 26-27 Apr.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Apr: Quiet

Estimated Indices 25 Apr : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   11120101
      Darwin               2   21120001
      Townsville           3   11120112
      Learmonth            1   11110010
      Alice Springs        2   11120001
      Gingin               2   01120110
      Canberra             3   01130101
      Hobart               3   01130101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Apr :
      Macquarie Island     2   00031000
      Casey                8   24321111
      Mawson              12   21122253

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Apr : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Apr : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6   2221 1222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
26 Apr     6    G0
27 Apr     6    G0
28 Apr     6    G0

COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian 
and Antarctic regions on UT day 25 Apr. G0 conditions are likely 
for 26-28 Apr.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
25 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
27 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal
28 Apr      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on 25 Apr. Normal propagation 
conditions are expected on 26-28 Apr with short-wave fadeouts 
possible.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
25 Apr    83

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Enhanced by 70% during local night.
      Enhanced by 45% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 25% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
      Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 30% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Mar      64
Apr      46
May      49

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
26 Apr    85    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
27 Apr    85    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
28 Apr    85    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 38 was issued on 24 
April and is current for 25-27 Apr. Maximum usable frequencies 
(MUFs) on UT day 25 Apr were mostly above monthly predicted values. 
MUFs are expected to be 15-25% above monthly predicted values 
on 26-28 Apr due to high level of solar ionising flux. Short-wave 
fadeouts are possible for the next three days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 24 Apr
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.2E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  3.8E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.90E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.6

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Apr
Speed: 481 km/sec  Density:    5.9 p/cc  Temp:   216000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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