[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 24 April 22 issued 2330 UT on 24 Apr 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Apr 25 09:30:50 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/24 APRIL 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 24 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 25 APRIL - 27 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://bit.ly/3lmaMBx
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 24 Apr: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 24 Apr: 159/113
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
25 Apr 26 Apr 27 Apr
Activity R1-R2 R1-R2 R1-R2
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 160/114 160/114 160/114
COMMENT: Solar flare activity on UT day 24-Apr was at R0 level
with a few low-level C flares. Region 2997 (N14E52) was numbered.
Solar regions AR2993 (N22W31) and AR2994 (N14W31) have shown
intermediate spot changes and there has been some trailer spot
development in AR 2995 (N13E05). ARs 2996 (N26E14) and unnumbered
region near S21E66 have shown some activity. ARs 2993 and 2994
maintain M-class flare potential. Solar activity is expected
to be in the R1-R2 (minor-moderate) range, with a slight chance
of an isolated R3 (strong) event on 25-27 Apr. There was a filament
eruption from near S15W38 at 1025 UT that produced a narrow CME
that is not expected to be geoeffective. The solar wind speed
range on 24 Apr was 432-541 km/s. The peak total interplanetary
magnetic field strength (IMF Bt) was 6 nT, and the north-south
IMF component (Bz) range was +5/-4 nT. The solar wind speed is
expected to be mildly elevated with IMF conditions mostly settled
on 25-27 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 24 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 24 Apr : A K
Australian Region 2 22100101
Darwin 2 21100101
Townsville 4 22101112
Learmonth 3 22210110
Alice Springs 2 22100101
Gingin 2 21200110
Canberra 1 21000000
Hobart 1 22000000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 24 Apr :
Macquarie Island 1 11100000
Mawson 10 23521110
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 24 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 24 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 23 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 12
Planetary 10 2214 3223
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
25 Apr 8 G0
26 Apr 6 G0
27 Apr 6 G0
COMMENT: G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed in the Australian
and Antarctic regions on UT day 24 Apr with an isolated G1 (minor
storm) period in the Antarctic region. G0 conditions are likely
25-27 Apr.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
24 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
26 Apr Normal Normal Normal
27 Apr Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF conditions were mostly normal on 24 Apr. Normal
propagation conditions are expected on 25-27 Apr with short-wave
fadeouts possible.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
24 Apr 79
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Enhanced by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 64
Apr 46
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
25 Apr 80 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
26 Apr 80 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
27 Apr 75 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 38 was issued on 24
April and is current for 25-27 Apr. Maximum usable frequencies
(MUFs) on UT day 24 Apr were mostly above monthly predicted values.
Spread F was observed at Hobart 11-20 UT. MUFs are expected to
be 15-25% above monthly predicted values 25-27 Apr. Frequencies
may be closer to predicted monthly values during night time.
Short-wave fadeouts are possible.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 23 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.6E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 3.9E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 23 Apr
Speed: 480 km/sec Density: 6.7 p/cc Temp: 192000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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