[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 07 April 22 issued 2333 UT on 07 Apr 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 8 09:33:18 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/07 APRIL 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 07 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 08 APRIL - 10 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://www.sws.bom.gov.au
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 07 Apr: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 07 Apr: 96/43
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
08 Apr 09 Apr 10 Apr
Activity R0-R1 R0 R0
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 125/78 120/72 115/66
COMMENT: On UT day 7 Apr, solar activity was at R0 level, with
one low-level C-class flare, and the background X-ray flux declining.
Solar activity is expected to be at R0 level on 8-10 Apr with
a slight chance of R1 activity. Region 2978 (S18W64, Cho/beta)
and 2985 (S19E18, Ero/beta) are the most complex regions. A filament
centred at S35E05 erupted resulting in a coronal mass ejection
(CME), first observed at 7/0548UT in LASCO C2. This CME may impact
Earth on 11 Apr. Two other CMEs were observed, with origins from
over the west limb; neither of these are geoeffective. The solar
wind speed range on 7 Apr was 391-466 km/s. The total interplanetary
magnetic field (IMF; Bt) strength peaked at 8 nT and the north-south
IMF (Bz) range was +4/-7 nT. There may be weak impacts on 8 Apr
from CMEs observed on 4 Apr. Coronal hole effects expected to
commence on 9 Apr.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 07 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 07 Apr : A K
Australian Region 11 22243322
Darwin 11 32233322
Townsville 13 23243323
Learmonth 10 22233322
Alice Springs 11 22243322
Gingin 11 22243322
Canberra 11 12243322
Hobart 13 12253322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 07 Apr :
Macquarie Island 24 12365422
Casey 17 54322323
Mawson 32 35423555
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 07 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 07 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 13
Planetary 18
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 06 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8 2121 1322
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
08 Apr 10 G0
09 Apr 16 G0 possible G1
10 Apr 10 G0 possible G1
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 19 was issued on 7 April and
is current for 7-8 Apr. G0 geomagnetic conditions were observed
in the Australian region on UT day 7 Apr. G0 to G1 levels were
observed in Antarctica. G0 conditions are expected on 8 Apr.
G0 with possible G1 conditions expected on 9-10 Apr due to coronal
hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
09 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
10 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Near normal propagation conditions expected 8-10 Apr.
Slight chance of shortwave fadeouts on daylight HF circuits.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
07 Apr 94
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 50% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 64
Apr 46
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
08 Apr 80 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
09 Apr 75 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
10 Apr 80 Near to 25% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 7 Apr were
enhanced, MUFs are expected to be similarly enhanced 8-10 Apr.
There may be some mild MUF degradations compared to current conditions
on 9 Apr after the onset of expected minor geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 06 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.0E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.0
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 06 Apr
Speed: 399 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 63800 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
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