[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 April 22 issued 2341 UT on 05 Apr 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Apr 6 09:41:23 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 APRIL 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 06 APRIL - 08 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL: ** YELLOW ** MAG:** RED ** ION: GREEN
ASWAS SCALE DESCRIPTION: https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Apr: R0
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Apr: 122/75
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Apr 07 Apr 08 Apr
Activity R0-R1 R0 R0
Fadeouts Possible None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 124/77 122/75 120/72
COMMENT: On UT day 5 Apr, solar activity was at R0 level. Solar
activity is expected to be at R0 with a slight chance of R1 levels
6 to 8 Apr. AR2981 (S27W38), 2983 (N23E04), 2985 (S19E43) have
shown some decay, AR2978 (S18W39) shows consolidation in the
trailer region. Spot development has occurred near N22W54 and
S31E70. There were no Earth-directed CMEs observed on 5 Apr.
The solar wind speed range on 5 Apr was 400-483 km/s, the peak
total interplanetary magnetic field strength (IMF; Bt) was 8
nT, and the north-south IMF (Bz) range was +7/-4 nT. Solar wind
parameters are expected to become elevated on 6 Apr, from the 3
Apr CME. There may be weak impacts on 8 Apr from CMEs first observed
in LASCO C2 at 4/1136UT and 4/2212UT, with higher confidence for the
latter CME.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Apr: G0
Estimated Indices 05 Apr : A K
Australian Region 4 11221211
Darwin 5 11221212
Townsville 5 11221212
Learmonth 5 12222220
Alice Springs 4 11221211
Gingin 4 21111220
Canberra 4 11221211
Hobart 4 11221210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Apr :
Macquarie Island 2 12120100
Casey 13 34431221
Mawson 21 24313255
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 6 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Apr : A K
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 9 3332 2121
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Apr 25 G0-G1
07 Apr 14 G0 possible G1
08 Apr 9 G0
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 18 was issued on 5 April and
is current for 5-7 Apr. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region were at G0 levels on UT day 5 Apr. G0 to G1 levels were
observed in Antarctica. On UT day 6 Apr, the arrival of a coronal
mass ejection is expected to increase conditions to G1 levels.
Depending on the arrival time of the coronal mass ejection, G1
conditions may extend into 7 Apr. Weak coronal mass ejection
impacts are possible on 8 Apr with conditions on that day only
expected to be at G0 levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Apr Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Apr Fair Fair Fair-poor
07 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Degraded HF propagation conditions possible on 6-7 Apr.
Chance of shortwave fadeouts on daylight HF circuits.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Apr 88
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 35% during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 30% during local day.
Enhanced by 25% during local night.
Enhanced by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 64
Apr 46
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Apr 80 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
07 Apr 60 Near predicted monthly values
08 Apr 70 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 5 Apr were
enhanced. Similar MUF conditions are expected for the next three
days, although there may be some mild depressions on 7 Apr. Slight
chance of shortwave fadeouts on daylight HF circuits 6-8 Apr.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Apr
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.3E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 7.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 8.60E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:10%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B8.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Apr
Speed: 481 km/sec Density: 5.5 p/cc Temp: 174000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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