[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 April 22 issued 2330 UT on 01 Apr 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Apr 2 10:30:58 EST 2022
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 APRIL 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 APRIL AND FORECAST FOR 02 APRIL - 04 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Apr: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Apr: 147/101
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Apr 03 Apr 04 Apr
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 145/99 130/84 115/66
COMMENT: On UT day 01 April, solar activity was at low levels,
with multiple C-class flares. Most of the flares were from AR2981(S26E22)
and AR2978(S15E12). Solar activity is expected to be at mostly
low to moderate levels for 02-04 April, with a chance of weak
to strong M-class flares (R1-R2 level) and an isolated chance
of X flares (R3 level). The CME associated with the 31 March
M9.6 class could cause a weak glancing blow at earth on mid UT
day 04 April. The 30 March CME is expected to arrive at earth
later today (UT day 02 Apr). Another possible CME was observed
to occur starting at 01/1400 UT, currently there is insufficient
data to model this event. On UT day 01 April, the solar wind
speed was at moderate levels, in range of 450 km/s to 550 km/s.
These were in response to passage of the 28 March CMEs. Interplanetary
magnetic field (IMF) total strength (Bt) declined gradually from
20 nT to 9 nT. The north-south IMF component (Bz) reached -9
nT. The solar wind parameters are expected to remain disturbed
over the next three UT days, 02-04 Apr due CMEs impacts.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Apr: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 01 Apr : A K
Australian Region 14 33244222
Darwin 14 33244222
Townsville 16 33245222
Learmonth 19 33245333
Alice Springs 14 33244222
Gingin 13 32233333
Canberra 13 23244222
Hobart 12 23234322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Apr :
Macquarie Island 24 12465322
Casey 21 35443233
Mawson 29 23343465
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Apr :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Apr : A
Fredericksburg 16
Planetary 22
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 18
Planetary 26 5533 4532
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Apr 20 Active
03 Apr 20 Active
04 Apr 15 Unsettled to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet to active due to passage of 28 March CMEs arrival. Unsettled
to storms levels (G2) were observed in Antarctica. Mostly unsettled
to active levels are expected on 02-04 April due CME effects.
There is chance of minor storms (G1 level) for the next three
days.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
03 Apr Normal Normal-fair Fair
04 Apr Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF communication conditions my be
observed on 02-04 Apr due to increased geomagnetic activity.
Possible shortwave fadeouts on daylight HF circuits over the
next few days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Apr 88
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Enhanced by 35% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
Enhanced by 25% during local day.
Enhanced by 20% during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Enhanced by 60% during local night.
Enhanced by 60% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Mar 64
Apr 46
May 49
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Apr 60 Near predicted monthly values
03 Apr 60 Near predicted monthly values
04 Apr 60 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: Maximum usable frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 01 Apr were
mildly to moderately enhanced. Similar MUF conditions are expected
for the next three days. Possible shortwave fadeouts on daylight
HF circuits over the next few days.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 31 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 4.6E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.1E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: C1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 31 Mar
Speed: 518 km/sec Density: 11.5 p/cc Temp: 161000 K Bz: 6 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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