[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 31 March 22 issued 2331 UT on 31 Mar 2022 [SEC=OFFICIAL]

rwc rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Apr 1 10:31:23 EST 2022


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/31 MARCH 2022 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 31 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 01 APRIL - 03 APRIL
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** R1-R2 **   MAG:** G0-G1 **  ION: GREEN
Please see our home page: https://www.sws.bom.gov.au/ for ASWAS scale
explanation. 
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 31 Mar:  R2

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M9/--    1835UT  probable   lower  East Pacific/
                                    North American

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 31 Mar: 149/104


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             01 Apr             02 Apr             03 Apr
Activity     R1-R2              R1-R2               R1-R2
Fadeouts     Probable           Probable           Probable
10.7cm/SSN   150/105            145/99             130/84

COMMENT: On UT day 31 Mar, solar activity was at R2 levels due 
to an M9.6 flare from AR 2975(N12W45) at 31/1835 UT, with associated 
Type IV and II radio sweeps and a CME first observed in STEREO 
imagery after 31/1853 UT. Flare location and magnitude indicate 
a possible geoeffective CME but data is insufficient at this 
time for further analysis. There are currently four numbered 
regions on the visible disk. AR 2975, remains the most active 
and the most complex, currently classified a beta-gamma-delta 
magnetic class. Solar activity is expected to be at R1-R2 levels 
for 01-03 Apr with a chance of an isolated R3 level. Analysis 
of the CME observed on 30 Mar and our model results determined 
that the CME is likely to hit earth in the second half of UT 
day 02 Apr. On UT day 31 Mar, the solar wind conditions reflected 
the arrival of the 28 Mar CMEs. A moderate shock was observed 
in the solar wind at 31/0140UT, the solar wind speed jumped to 
520 Km/s following the shock and reached 625 Km/s at 31/1148UT. 
Interplanetary magnetic field (IMF) total strength (Bt) peaked 
at 20 nT. The north-south IMF component (Bz) dropped to - 12 nT. 
Solar wind parameters are expected to remain disturbed over 
the next three UT days, 01-03 Apr due CMEs impacts.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 31 Mar: G0-G1 

Estimated Indices 31 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region      24   54344423
      Darwin              22   54334423
      Townsville          24   54344423
      Learmonth           32   64444523
      Alice Springs       22   54334423
      Gingin              24   53444423
      Canberra            17   43343323
      Hobart              22   44453323    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 31 Mar :
      Macquarie Island    42   44475523
      Casey               25   55434332
      Mawson              31   54634433

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 31 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            6   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin              29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Canberra            29   (Quiet to unsettled)
      Hobart              32   (Quiet to unsettled)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 31 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg        24
           Planetary             43                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 30 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              8   1112 2333     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
01 Apr    25    G0-G1 with a chance of G2 levels.
02 Apr    20    G0-G1
03 Apr    20    G0-G1

COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 16 was issued on 30 March and 
is current for 31 Mar to 1 Apr. Geomagnetic conditions in the 
Australian region reached G1 levels due to 28 March CMEs arrival. 
G2 levels were observed in Antarctica. G0 to G1 with a chance 
of G2 levels are expected on 01-03 Apr due CME effects .

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
31 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
01 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
02 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair
03 Apr      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal-fair

COMMENT: Slightly degraded HF communication conditions my be 
observed on 01-03 Apr due to increased geomagnetic activity. 
Possible shortwave fadeouts on daylight HF circuits over the 
next few days.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
31 Mar    89

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 50% during local day.
      Enhanced by 90% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 25% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 40% during local night.
      Enhanced by 30% after local dawn.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Enhanced by 45% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Enhanced by 20% over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      59
Mar      42
Apr      44

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
01 Apr    60    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
02 Apr    60    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
03 Apr    60    Near to 15% above predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS Preliminary HF Communications Warning 30 was issued 
on 30 March and is current for 31 Mar to 1 Apr. Maximum usable 
frequencies (MUFs) on UT day 31 Mar were mildly to strongly enhanced. 
Mildly degraded conditions may be experienced on 01-03 Apr due 
to increased geomagnetic activity. Possible shortwave fadeouts 
on daylight HF circuits over the next few days.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 30 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.6E+06
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  9.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B8.9

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 30 Mar
Speed: 402 km/sec  Density:    5.5 p/cc  Temp:    56600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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