[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 19 September 21 issued 2330 UT on 19 Sep 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 20 09:30:40 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/19 SEPTEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 19 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 20 SEPTEMBER - 22 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 19 Sep:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 19 Sep:  75/13


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             20 Sep             21 Sep             22 Sep
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low to low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    75/13              75/13              75/13

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 19 September with a 
C1.6 flare at 19/0115 UT from AR 2871 (Dko/beta) located at S28E62. 
Unnumbered SN90 has appeared at N17E55 and is a Bxo/beta group. 
Solar activity is expected to be very low to low on 20-22 September. 
A filament disappearance from the vicinity of S39W04 occurred 
at 19/1139 UT with no apparent CME signature. On 19 September 
the solar wind speed range was 304 km/s to 401 km/s. The total 
IMF (Bt) was 5 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) component range 
was +5/-2 nT. Solar wind parameters are expected to be settled 
on 20 September. Solar wind parameters may become disturbed in 
the latter part of 21 September or on 22 September with the arrival 
of the 18 September CME.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 19 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 19 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       1   11001000
      Cocos Island         1   11110000
      Darwin               2   21101001
      Townsville           1   21001000
      Learmonth            1   11101000
      Alice Springs        1   11001001
      Gingin               0   11000000
      Canberra             0   01000000
      Hobart               0   00000000    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 19 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                7   33321010
      Mawson               7   32011042

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 19 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 19 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg        14
           Planetary             14   3443 2121     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
20 Sep     7    Quiet
21 Sep    11    Unsettled to Active. Possible minor storm period.
22 Sep    15    Quiet to Active. Possible minor storm periods.

COMMENT: On UT day 19 September, geomagnetic conditions in the 
Australian region were quiet. In the Antarctic region, quiet 
to active levels were observed. Geomagnetic conditions are expected 
to be quiet on 20 September. A CME may arrive in the latter half 
of 21 September or early 22nd causing active to minor storm conditions.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
19 Sep      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
20 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
21 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
22 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mild to moderate MUF depressions were observed on 19 
September. Normal conditions are expected on 20-22 September.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
19 Sep    10

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed to 30% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      14
Sep      27
Oct      30

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
20 Sep    15    Near predicted monthly values
21 Sep    15    Near predicted monthly values
22 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 19 September 
were mostly 15-30% below predicted monthly values. Night spread 
F was observed at Learmonth and Perth. MUFs in the Australian 
region on 20-22 September are expected to be near predicted monthly 
values to mildly depressed.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 18 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.2e+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.9e+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.20e+06
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 18 Sep
Speed: 385 km/sec  Density:   13.0 p/cc  Temp:   132000 K  Bz:   2 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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