[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 September 21 issued 2335 UT on 18 Sep 2021
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Sep 19 09:35:19 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 SEPTEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 SEPTEMBER - 21 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Sep: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Sep 20 Sep 21 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 76/14 76/14
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 18 September with a
C2.6 flare at 18/0827 UT from the southeast limb. An unnumbered
spot region has rotated onto the disc near latitude S29 and is
the likely origin of the flare. Solar activity is expected to
be very low to low on 19-21 September. There were a number of
CMEs. A halo CME at 18/0312 UT is a far side event. A southwest
CME at 18/1224 UT also appears to be a far side event while a
southeast CME observed at 18/1524 UT is likely linked to a filament
disappearance from the vicinity of S41E28 at 1425 UT. Modelling
indicates this CME may impact on 21 September. The CME from the
C3.5 flare on 17 September is not expected to be geoeffective.
On 18 September the solar wind speed range was 341 km/s to 426
km/s. The total IMF (Bt) peaked at 15 nT early in the period
but has since settled to less than 5 nT. Solar wind parameters
are expected to be settled on 19 and 20 September. Solar wind
parameters may become disturbed in the latter part of 21 September
with the arrival of the CME.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Sep: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 18 Sep : A K
Australian Region 6 23232001
Cocos Island 6 -4222000
Darwin 7 33232001
Townsville 10 33342011
Learmonth 8 23242001
Alice Springs 6 23232001
Gingin 5 22232001
Canberra 7 23241000
Hobart 6 23331000
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Sep :
Macquarie Island 15 24354000
Casey 10 34332001
Mawson 16 33432015
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Hobart 21 (Quiet to unsettled)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 10
Planetary 11
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 19
Planetary 21 2303 3355
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
20 Sep 7 Quiet
21 Sep 15 Unsettled to Active. Chance of minor storm period.
COMMENT: On UT day 18 September, geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian region were quiet to active. In the Antarctic region,
quiet to minor storm levels were observed. Geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be mostly quiet on 19-20 September. A CME may
arrive on 21 September causing active to minor storm levels.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Sep Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Sep Normal Normal Normal
21 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderate MUF depressions were observed on 18
September. Normal conditions are expected on 19-21 September.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Sep 11
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Depressed to 25% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 15% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 14
Sep 27
Oct 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Sep 15 Near predicted monthly values
20 Sep 15 Near predicted monthly values
21 Sep 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 18 September
were mostly near predicted monthly values to 25% depressed. Night
spread F was observed at Canberra. MUFs in the Australian region
on 19-21 September are expected to be near predicted monthly
values to mildly depressed.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 2.3e+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.7e+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.90e+06
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Sep
Speed: 361 km/sec Density: 11.0 p/cc Temp: 64100 K Bz: -4 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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