[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 06 September 21 issued 2330 UT on 06 Sep 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Sep 7 09:30:56 EST 2021


SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/06 SEPTEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 06 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 07 SEPTEMBER - 09 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 06 Sep:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 06 Sep: 100/48


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             07 Sep             08 Sep             09 Sep
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN   100/48             100/48             100/48

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 6 September. There 
are currently six numbered regions on the visible disk, four 
of them have sunspots. Solar activity is expected to be at low 
levels on UT days 7 to 9 September. One CME (starting around 
05/1800) was observed in the available coronagraph imagery. This 
CME may have a weak earthward component and will be analysed 
further. On UT day 6 September, the solar wind speed was near 
its background levels, it varied in the range 300-330 km/s. The 
total IMF (Bt) and the north-south component (Bz) ranges were 
3 to 6 nT and +4/-4 nT, respectively. The solar wind speed may 
reach slightly enhanced levels on UT day 7 September due to coronal 
hole effects.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 06 Sep: Quiet

Estimated Indices 06 Sep : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   11100212
      Cocos Island         2   11100211
      Darwin               2   11100111
      Townsville           3   11100212
      Learmonth            3   11100212
      Alice Springs        2   11000202
      Gingin               4   11100312
      Canberra             2   12000101
      Hobart               1   11000111    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 06 Sep :
      Macquarie Island     1   01010200
      Casey                6   23210212
      Mawson              18   34110326

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 06 Sep : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 06 Sep : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              7                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         8
           Planetary              8   2312 3222     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
07 Sep     7    Mostly quiet, isolated unsettled periods possible
08 Sep     5    Quiet
09 Sep     5    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
quiet on UT day 6 September. Predominantly quiet conditions were 
observed in the Antarctic region with three unsettled, one active 
and one minor storm period. For UT days 7 to 9 September, global 
geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet with possible 
isolated unsettled periods on 7 September due to coronal hole 
effects.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
06 Sep      Normal         Normal-fair    Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
07 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
08 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal
09 Sep      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
for the next three UT days, 7 to 9 September.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
06 Sep    24

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Depressed by 25% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available during local day.
      No data available during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 15% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Aug      14
Sep      27
Oct      30

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
07 Sep    20    Near predicted monthly values
08 Sep    24    Near predicted monthly values
09 Sep    24    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 6 September 
were mostly near predicted monthly values. Periods of mildly 
depressed MUFs in the Northern Australian region and mildly enhanced 
MUFs in the Southern Australian region were observed. MUFs in 
the Australian region on UT days 7 to 9 September are expected 
to be mostly near predicted monthly values.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 05 Sep
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.8E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.6E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 4.50E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 6%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.2

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 05 Sep
Speed: 312 km/sec  Density:   11.4 p/cc  Temp:    83400 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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