[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 05 September 21 issued 2330 UT on 05 Sep 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Sep 6 09:30:56 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/05 SEPTEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 05 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 06 SEPTEMBER - 08 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 05 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 05 Sep: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
06 Sep 07 Sep 08 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 90/34 90/34
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 5 September. There
are currently 7 numbered regions on the visible disk, four of
them have sunspots. Solar activity is expected to be at very
low to low levels on UT days 6-8 September. No Earth-directed
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT
day 5 September, the solar wind speed was near its background
levels, it varied in the range 300-350 km/s. The total IMF (Bt)
and the north-south component (Bz) ranges were 4-7 nT and +/-5
nT, respectively. The solar wind speed may reach slightly enhanced
levels on UT day 6 September due to coronal hole effects.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 05 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 05 Sep : A K
Australian Region 3 11112200
Cocos Island 3 11112200
Darwin 3 11102201
Townsville 3 11112201
Learmonth 3 11112200
Alice Springs 2 11102200
Gingin 2 11112100
Canberra 2 11112100
Hobart 2 11112100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 05 Sep :
Macquarie Island 5 01124000
Casey 5 23212100
Mawson 11 43322203
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 05 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 5 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 05 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 04 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5 2121 1112
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
06 Sep 9 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Sep 7 Quiet
08 Sep 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet. Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions were observed in
the Antarctic region. For UT days 6-8 September, global geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be mostly quiet with possible isolated
unsettled periods on 6 September due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
08 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
05 Sep 26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 14
Sep 27
Oct 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
06 Sep 25 Near predicted monthly values
07 Sep 20 Near predicted monthly values
08 Sep 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 5 September
were mostly near predicted monthly values. Mildly depressed MUFs
were observed in the Northern Australian region during the local
day and mildly enhanced MUFs were observed in the Southern Australian
region during the local night. MUFs in the Australian region
on UT days 6-8 September are expected to be mostly near predicted
monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 04 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.3E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.6E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.80E+07 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 4%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 04 Sep
Speed: 362 km/sec Density: 10.3 p/cc Temp: 339000 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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