[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 03 September 21 issued 2330 UT on 03 Sep 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Sep 4 09:30:56 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/03 SEPTEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 03 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 04 SEPTEMBER - 06 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 03 Sep: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 03 Sep: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
04 Sep 05 Sep 06 Sep
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 82/23 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 3 September. There
are currently four numbered regions on the visible disk: 2860,
2861, 2863, and 2864. The regions 2863 and 2864 have sunspots,
the other regions are currently spotless. Solar activity is expected
to be at very low to low levels on UT days 4-6 September. No
Earth-directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
imagery. On UT day 3 September, the solar wind speed was mostly
near background levels with relatively short periods when it
was slightly elevated, up to 420 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied
between 4-6 nT and the north-south component (Bz) was in the
range -6/+5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be mostly
near background levels on UT day 4 September, then it is expected
to increase to slightly enhanced levels on UT day 5 September
due to influence of a negative polarity coronal hole in the southern
hemisphere.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 03 Sep: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 03 Sep : A K
Australian Region 7 01143111
Townsville 3 1-------
Learmonth 3 1-------
Alice Springs 0 0-------
Gingin 0 0-------
Canberra 3 01032000
Hobart 7 01143111
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 03 Sep :
Macquarie Island 0 0-------
Casey 3 1-------
Mawson 3 1-------
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 03 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 17 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 03 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 7
Planetary 7
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 1101 1111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
04 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Sep 12 Unsettled
06 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
mostly at quiet levels with one isolated unsettled to active
period. Very limited data are available for Antarctic region
for 3 September. Global geomagnetic conditions are expected to
be mostly quiet with possible isolated unsettled periods on 4
and 6 September. Mostly unsettled conditions with a chance of
isolated active periods are expected on 5 September due to coronal
hole effects.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
06 Sep Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three days.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
03 Sep 26
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 14
Sep 27
Oct 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
04 Sep 20 Near predicted monthly values
05 Sep 20 Near predicted monthly values
06 Sep 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 3 September
were mostly near predicted monthly values. Mildly enhanced MUFs
were observed in the Cocos Island region during local day. MUFs
in the Australian region on UT days 4-6 September are expected
to be mostly near predicted monthly values.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 02 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 2.50E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:17%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.4
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 02 Sep
Speed: 329 km/sec Density: 9.6 p/cc Temp: 207000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list