[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 02 September 21 issued 2330 UT on 02 Sep 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Sep 3 09:30:54 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/02 SEPTEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 02 SEPTEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 03 SEPTEMBER - 05 SEPTEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 02 Sep: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 02 Sep: 86/29
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
03 Sep 04 Sep 05 Sep
Activity Low Low Low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 85/27 82/23 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was at low levels on UT day 02 September.
There are currently three numbered regions on the visible disk.
Newly numbered region 2863,a beta magnetic class is the largest
region on the visible disk. ARs 2860 and 2859 showed further
decrease and are rotating behind the west limb. Solar activity
is expected to be at low levels on UT days, 03-05 September with
a slight chance of an isolated M-class flare. No earth directed
CMEs were observed in the available satellite imagery. On UT
day 02 September, the solar wind speed was near background levels,
between 310-380 Km/s. The total IMF (Bt) varied between 2-5 nT
and the north-south component (Bz) was in the range -/+ 3 nT.
The solar wind speed is expected to be near background levels
on UT days 03-04. However the solar wind speed is expected to
increase to slightly enhanced levels on UT day 05 September,
due to influence of a negative polarity coronal hole in the southern
hemisphere.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 02 Sep: Quiet
Estimated Indices 02 Sep : A K
Australian Region 1 01111100
Darwin 2 11111101
Townsville 3 11111111
Learmonth 3 01112210
Alice Springs 1 01101100
Gingin 1 01101110
Canberra 0 00001100
Hobart 1 00011200
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 02 Sep :
Macquarie Island 1 00012100
Casey 5 12222120
Mawson 12 22112253
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 02 Sep :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 2 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 02 Sep : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 01 Sep : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 2222 1202
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
03 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Sep 8 Quiet to Unsettled
05 Sep 12 Quiet to Active
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions were at quiet levels in the Australian
region on UT day 02 September. An isolated minor storm period
observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions
are expected to be mostly quiet on todays 03-04 September with
a chance of isolated unsettled periods. Quiet to unsettled conditions
with a chance of isolated active periods are expected on 05 September
due to coronal hole effects.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
03 Sep Normal-fair Normal Normal
04 Sep Normal Normal Normal
05 Sep Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
for the next three days.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
02 Sep 17
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 30% during local night.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Aug 14
Sep 27
Oct 30
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
03 Sep 10 Near predicted monthly values
04 Sep 10 Near predicted monthly values
05 Sep 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 02 September
were mostly near predicted monthly values. Mildly depressed MUFs
observed at Cocos Island region local night. MUFs in the Australian
region on UT days 03-05 September are expected to be mostly near
predicted monthly values.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 01 Sep
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.9E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 01 Sep
Speed: 326 km/sec Density: 11.1 p/cc Temp: 175000 K Bz: -2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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