[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 October 21 issued 2334 UT on 28 Oct 2021
rwc
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Oct 29 10:34:22 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 OCTOBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 OCTOBER - 31 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** RED ** MAG:** RED ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Oct: High
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M1.4 0740UT possible lower Mid East/Indian
M2.2 1029UT possible lower European
X1.0 1535UT probable all South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Oct: 112/63
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
29 Oct 30 Oct 31 Oct
Activity Moderate to high Moderate to high Moderate to high
Fadeouts Probable Probable Probable
10.7cm/SSN 113/64 114/65 114/65
COMMENT: On UT day 28 October, solar activity reached high levels
due to two M-class flares and one X-class flare produced by AR2887.
Currently there are 6 numbered regions on the visible disc. Solar
activity is expected to be moderate to high on 29-31 October,
mostly because of the flaring potential of AR2887. An Earth directed
CME associated with the X-class flare was observed in the available
coronagraph images. The CME is expected to arrive in the first
half of 30 October. On UT day 28 October, the solar wind parameters
were near nominal levels with the solar wind speed range of 295
km/s to 330 km/s, peak total IMF (BT) of 5 nT, and a north-south
IMF (Bz) component range of +3/-2 nT. Mostly nominal conditions
are likely on 29 October. Upon the CME arrival, the solar wind
speed is expected to increase to strong levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 28 Oct : A K
Australian Region 1 10000201
Cocos Island 1 00000201
Darwin 2 10000212
Townsville 3 20000212
Learmonth 2 11000201
Alice Springs 2 10000212
Gingin 1 10000101
Canberra 0 10000100
Hobart 0 00000100
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Oct :
Macquarie Island 0 00000000
Casey 3 22200011
Mawson 1 11000100
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 1000 0001
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
29 Oct 7 Quiet
30 Oct 35 Quiet to Major Storm
31 Oct 30 Active to Minor Storm
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian and Antarctic
regions were quiet on UT day 28 October. Mostly quiet conditions
are expected on 29 October and on 30 October before arrival of
the CME associated with the 28 October X-class flare. Upon the
CME arrival, global geomagnetic activity is expected to increase
to moderate and major storm levels. Active to minor storm levels
are likely on 31 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal
PCA Event : 10MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 29 10 2021 0430UT and is in progress
and, 100MeV Proton/PCA Event Began 29 10 2021 0325UT and is in progress
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
29 Oct Normal Normal Poor(PCA)
30 Oct Fair Fair Fair-poor
31 Oct Fair Fair Fair-poor
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT day 29 October for mid and low latitudes. Degraded conditions
can be observed for high latitude because of possible PCA events.
Degraded conditions are expected on 30-31 October due to predicted
increase in geomagnetic activity. Shortwave fadeouts may happen
due to possible M- and X-class flares.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
28 Oct 37
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Enhanced by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Proton event in progress, increased absorption observed.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 24
Oct 29
Nov 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
29 Oct 35 Near predicted monthly values
30 Oct 50 Near to 15% above predicted monthly values
31 Oct 25 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 15 to
25%
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 27 was issued on 28
October and is current for 29-31 Oct. MUFs in the Australian
region on UT day 28 October were mostly near predicted monthly
values. Mild enhancements were observed in the Northern Australian
region during local night. MUFs are likely to be near predicted
monthly values on 29 October. Mild enhancements are possible
on 30 October. Mild to moderate depressions are likely on 31
October. Shortwave fadeouts are likely due to possible M- and
X-class flares.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 27 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.0E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B5.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Oct
Speed: 376 km/sec Density: 3.5 p/cc Temp: 66400 K Bz: 1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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