[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 October 21 issued 2331 UT on 27 Oct 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Oct 28 10:31:16 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 OCTOBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 OCTOBER - 30 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Oct:  Low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Oct: 111/62


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Oct             29 Oct             30 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   111/62             112/63             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 27 October. Currently 
there are 6 numbered regions on the visible disc. The most complex 
region AR2887 produced many flares, the largest flare was C8.5. 
AR2889 and AR2891 produced low C-class flares. Solar activity 
is expected to be low to moderate on 28-30 October because there 
is a chance of M-class flares due to flaring potential of AR2887 
and AR2891. There are no Earth directed CMEs observed in the 
available coronagraph images. On UT day 27 October, the solar 
wind parameters were near nominal levels with the solar wind 
range of 350 km/s to 410 km/s, peak total IMF (BT) of 6 nT, and 
a north-south IMF (Bz) component range of +3/-2 nT. Mostly nominal 
conditions are likely on 28-30 October.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 27 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       2   10111012
      Cocos Island         1   11111000
      Darwin               3   21111012
      Townsville           3   20112012
      Learmonth            2   21111001
      Alice Springs        2   10011012
      Gingin               1   10011001
      Canberra             2   10011012
      Hobart               1   00011002    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000001
      Casey                7   33320011
      Mawson               5   22110004

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   1100 1102     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Oct     7    Quiet
29 Oct     7    Quiet
30 Oct     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
quiet on UT day 27 October and mostly at quiet to unsettled levels 
in the Antarctic region. Mostly quiet conditions are expected 
on 28-30 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
29 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
30 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT days 28-30 October. Shortwave fadeouts may happen due to 
possible M-class flares.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
27 Oct    34

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 35% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Enhanced by 30% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      24
Oct      29
Nov      33

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Oct    30    Near predicted monthly values
29 Oct    30    Near predicted monthly values
30 Oct    30    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on 25 
October and is current for 26-28 Oct. MUFs in the Australian 
region on UT day 27 October were near predicted monthly values. 
MUFs are likely to be near predicted monthly values on 28-30 
October. Shortwave fadeouts may happen due to possible M-class 
flares.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   7.2E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B7.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Oct
Speed: 343 km/sec  Density:    6.3 p/cc  Temp:    51300 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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