[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 26 October 21 issued 2331 UT on 26 Oct 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Oct 27 10:31:17 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/26 OCTOBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 26 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 27 OCTOBER - 29 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW **   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 26 Oct:  Moderate

Flares    Max     Fadeout    Freq.  Sectors
 M1/--    0247UT  possible   lower  E. Asia/Aust.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 26 Oct: 109/59


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             27 Oct             28 Oct             29 Oct
Activity     Low to moderate    Low to moderate    Low to moderate
Fadeouts     Possible           Possible           Possible
10.7cm/SSN   108/58             110/60             110/60

COMMENT: Solar activity was moderate on UT day 26 October. The 
newly numbered AR2891 produced two low M-class flares when it 
was approaching the eastern limb. Currently there are six numbered 
regions on the visible disc. The most complex region AR2887 produced 
two C-class flares. AR2889 produced C-class flares, too. Solar 
activity is expected to be low to moderate on 27-29 October because 
there is a chance of M-class flares due to flaring potential 
of AR2887 and AR2891. There are no Earth directed CMEs observed 
in the available coronagraph images. On UT day 26 October, the 
solar wind parameters were near background levels with the solar 
wind range of 320 km/s to 380 km/s, peak total IMF (BT) of 7 
nT, and a north-south IMF (Bz) component range of +4/-4 nT. Mostly 
nominal conditions are likely on 27-29 October.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 26 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 26 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   21101112
      Cocos Island         2   11001012
      Darwin               3   21101112
      Townsville           3   21011112
      Learmonth            4   21102122
      Alice Springs        3   21101112
      Gingin               2   21001102
      Canberra             2   11101002
      Hobart               3   11111012    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 26 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     0   00010001
      Casey               12   44321113
      Mawson              10   34201104

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 26 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             4   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 26 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              4   0010 0211     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
27 Oct     7    Quiet
28 Oct     7    Quiet
29 Oct     7    Quiet

COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were 
quiet on UT day 26 October and at quiet to active levels in the 
Antarctic region. Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 27-29 
October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
26 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
28 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
29 Oct      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT days 27-29 October. Shortwave fadeouts may happen due to 
possible M-class flares.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
26 Oct    29

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Enhanced by 20% during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Enhanced by 20% during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      24
Oct      29
Nov      33

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
27 Oct    30    Near predicted monthly values
28 Oct    30    Near predicted monthly values
29 Oct    30    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on 25 
October and is current for 26-28 Oct. MUFs in the Australian 
region on UT day 26 October were mostly near predicted monthly 
values. Mild to moderate enhancements were observed in the Northern 
Australian region during local night. MUFs are likely to be near 
predicted monthly values on 27-29 October. Shortwave fadeouts 
may happen due to possible M-class flares.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 25 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   2.2E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.60E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B2.8

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 25 Oct
Speed: 331 km/sec  Density:    7.4 p/cc  Temp:    26600 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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