[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 25 October 21 issued 2331 UT on 25 Oct 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 26 10:31:16 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/25 OCTOBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 25 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 26 OCTOBER - 28 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:** YELLOW ** MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 25 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 25 Oct: 101/49
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
26 Oct 27 Oct 28 Oct
Activity Low to moderate Low to moderate Low to moderate
Fadeouts Possible Possible Possible
10.7cm/SSN 100/48 100/48 102/50
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 25 October. A C8- and
C4-class flares were produced by a far-side region approaching
the eastern limb. Currently there are five numbered regions on
the visible disc, including newly numbered AR2889 and AR2890.
The most complex region AR2887 continues to produce B-class flares.
Solar activity is expected to be low to moderate on 26-28 October
because there is a chance of M-class flares due to flaring potential
of AR2887 and the abovementioned far-side region. There are no
Earth directed CMEs observed in the available coronagraph images.
On UT day 25 October, the solar wind parameters were near background
levels with a solar wind range of 310 km/s to 340 km/s, peak
total IMF (BT) of 8 nT, and a north-south IMF (Bz) component
range of +6/-5 nT. Mostly background conditions are likely on
26-28 October.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 25 Oct: Quiet to Unsettled
Estimated Indices 25 Oct : A K
Australian Region 4 11101311
Cocos Island 3 11100310
Darwin 4 12101311
Townsville 4 12101311
Learmonth 4 11001312
Alice Springs 3 11001311
Gingin 2 00000311
Canberra 2 01001211
Hobart 2 01101211
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 25 Oct :
Macquarie Island 1 01010100
Casey 10 34311212
Mawson 9 33112313
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 25 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 25 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 24 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 3 1100 0111
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
26 Oct 7 Quiet
27 Oct 7 Quiet
28 Oct 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
mostly quiet with one unsettled period on UT day 25 October and
mostly at quiet to unsettled levels in the Antarctic region.
Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 26-28 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
25 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
26 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
27 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
28 Oct Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 26-28 October. Shortwave fadeouts may happen due to
possible M-class flares.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
25 Oct 24
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Niue Island Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 24
Oct 29
Nov 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
26 Oct 25 Near predicted monthly values
27 Oct 25 Near predicted monthly values
28 Oct 25 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS SWF HF Communications Warning 26 was issued on 25
October and is current for 26-28 Oct. MUFs in the Australian
region on UT day 25 October were mostly near predicted monthly
values. MUFs are likely to be near predicted monthly values on
26-28 October. Shortwave fadeouts may happen due to possible
M-class flares.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 24 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 8.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B2.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 24 Oct
Speed: 351 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 70500 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
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