[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 18 October 21 issued 2331 UT on 18 Oct 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Oct 19 10:31:08 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/18 OCTOBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 18 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 19 OCTOBER - 21 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 18 Oct: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 18 Oct: 76/14
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
19 Oct 20 Oct 21 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 76/14 76/14 76/14
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 18 October. There
is currently one numbered region on the visible disk of the Sun
AR2886 (S19E63). Very low solar activity is expected for the
next three UT days 19-21 October. No Earth directed CMEs were
observed in the available coronagraph imagery. On UT day 18 October,
the the solar wind speed followed an increasing trend from 320
km/s up to 380 km/s. The total IMF (BT) peaked at 12 nT and the
north-south IMF (Bz) component range was +11/-7 nT. The solar
wind speed is expected to be slightly to moderately enhanced
on UT days 19-21 October due to the high speed streams from a
small northern coronal hole and a large extension of a southern
polar coronal hole.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 18 Oct: Quiet
Estimated Indices 18 Oct : A K
Australian Region 6 11212223
Darwin 7 21212223
Townsville 8 22222223
Learmonth 10 11223234
Alice Springs 7 21212223
Gingin 7 11212233
Canberra 6 11212223
Hobart 6 11212223
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 18 Oct :
Macquarie Island 5 21211221
Casey 9 33321222
Mawson 24 54212263
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 18 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 0 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 18 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 17 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 12 0113 2243
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
19 Oct 15 Unsettled to active with a slight chance of a
minor storm
20 Oct 12 Unsettled to active with a slight chance of a
minor storm
21 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region
were mostly quiet on UT day 18 October. In the Antarctic region,
quiet to storm levels were observed. Geomagnetic conditions are
expected to be unsettled to active, with a slight chance of a
minor storm, on UT days 19-20 October due to coronal hole effects.
Then quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on UT day 21
October as coronal hole effects fade.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
19 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
20 Oct Normal Normal-fair Fair
21 Oct Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days 19-21 October, with some mild to moderate degradations
due to the expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
18 Oct -14
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 30% during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 24
Oct 29
Nov 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
19 Oct 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
20 Oct 0 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
21 Oct 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
20%
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 18 October were
mostly near predicted monthly values, with some mild depressions
in the northern Australian region during the local night and
some moderate depressions on the Southern Australian region.
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values
on UT days 19-21 October, with some mild to moderate depressions
due to the expected increase in geomagnetic activity.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 17 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.1E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.2E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.60E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.9
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 17 Oct
Speed: 354 km/sec Density: 6.7 p/cc Temp: 24400 K Bz: -6 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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