[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 October 21 issued 2331 UT on 16 Oct 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Sun Oct 17 10:31:05 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 OCTOBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 17 OCTOBER - 19 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Oct:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Oct:  78/17


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Oct             18 Oct             19 Oct
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              78/17              78/17

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 16 October. There 
is currently one numbered region on the visible solar disk, AR 
2882(N15W84), has simplified and remained relatively inactive. 
Very low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days 
17-19 October with a slight chance of C-class flares. SDO images 
observed SW Limb prominence activity from 16/1658UT. No CMEs 
were observed in the available coronagraph imagery up to 16/1400UT. 
On UT day 16 October, the solar wind parameters were slightly 
disturbed with a weak shock observed in the solar wind at 16/ 
0014UT. The solar wind peaked at 420 km/s,the total IMF (BT) 
range was 5 to 9 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) component range 
was +9/-8 nT. This probably corresponds to the passage of the 
12 October CME and weak coronal hole connection. The solar wind 
speed is expected to be mostly near background to slightly elevated 
levels today, 17 October. Solar wind parameters are expected 
to become disturbed from late 18 October with the arrival of 
high speed stream from two coronal holes in the northern and 
southern hemispheres.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Oct: Quiet

Estimated Indices 16 Oct : A   K           
   Australian Region       4   21220211
      Darwin               5   21220212
      Townsville           5   21220221
      Learmonth            5   21220212
      Alice Springs        4   21220211
      Gingin               3   21120111
      Hobart               3   21220101    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Oct :
      Macquarie Island     2   11120000
      Casey               15   44530011
      Mawson               9   44220110

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Oct : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Oct : A 
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              6                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         4
           Planetary              6   2222 1112     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Oct     7    Mostly quiet
18 Oct    15    Quiet to Active
19 Oct    15    Quiet to Active

COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region 
were mostly quiet on UT day 16 October. Unsettled to active levels 
were observed in the Antarctic region. Mostly quiet conditions 
with possible unsettled periods are expected on UT day 17 October. 
Geomagnetic conditions are expected to increase to active levels 
with a chance of minor storm levels from late 18 October due 
to coronal hole effects.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
18 Oct      Normal-fair    Normal-fair    Normal-fair
19 Oct      Normal-fair    Fair-poor      Fair-poor

COMMENT: Mostly Normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
over the next two UT days, 17-18 October. Mildly degraded HF 
propagation conditions may be observed on 19 October.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Oct     9

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Sep      24
Oct      29
Nov      33

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Oct    15    Near predicted monthly values
18 Oct    15    Near predicted monthly values
19 Oct     5    Depressed 10 to 20%/near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 16 October showed 
a slight recovery. MUFs were near predicted monthly values with 
slight depressions observed in the southern Australian region 
local night. MUFs are likely to be mostly near predicted monthly 
values on UT days 17-18 October. Mildly depressed MUFs are possible 
on 19 October in response to the expected increase in geomagnetic 
activity.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Oct
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.2E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 9.40E+06   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 2%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A5.3

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Oct
Speed: 353 km/sec  Density:    9.3 p/cc  Temp:   119000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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