[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 15 October 21 issued 2331 UT on 15 Oct 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat Oct 16 10:31:11 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/15 OCTOBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 15 OCTOBER AND FORECAST FOR 16 OCTOBER - 18 OCTOBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 15 Oct: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 15 Oct: 84/26
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
16 Oct 17 Oct 18 Oct
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 82/23 80/20 80/20
COMMENT: Solar activity was low on UT day 15 October. There is
currently one numbered region on the visible solar disk, AR 2882(N15W75).
Very low solar activity is expected for the next three UT days
16-18 October with a chance of an isolated C-class flare. A CME
was observed around 15/0325UT in SOHO LASCO heading northwest.
This has yet to be analysed but unlikely to have any significant
earth bound component. No other CMEs were observed in the available
coronagraph imagery. SDO images observed a NW Limb prominence
around 15/1518UT followed by a filament eruption around the centre
of the northern hemisphere around 15/1558UT, no CME signature
observed in available satellite imagery up to 15/1736UT. On UT
day 15 October, the solar wind speed was mostly near background
levels, varying in the range of 340km/s to 380 km/s. The total
IMF (BT) range was 2 to 8 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) component
range was +3/-5 nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be mostly
near background to mildly elevated levels for the next three
days, 16-18 October. The predicted mild enhancements are due
to weak coronal hole effects and a possible glancing blow from
the 12 October CME.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 15 Oct: Mostly quiet
Estimated Indices 15 Oct : A K
Australian Region 3 22220001
Darwin 2 21110001
Townsville 4 22220011
Learmonth 4 22220002
Alice Springs 2 11220001
Gingin 4 21220012
Hobart 5 12330001
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 15 Oct :
Macquarie Island 6 11430001
Casey 7 33320012
Mawson 17 23230036
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 15 Oct :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 2 (Quiet)
Hobart 8 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 15 Oct : A
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 8
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 14 Oct : A K
Fredericksburg 6
Planetary 6 22122122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
16 Oct 10 Quiet to Unsettled
17 Oct 5 Quiet
18 Oct 5 Quiet
COMMENT: The geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region
were mostly quiet on UT day 15 October. Unsettled to active levels
were observed in the Antarctic region. Today, UT day 16 October,
geomagnetic conditions are expected to be mostly quiet with a
chance o unsettled to active periods due to weak coronal hole
effect and possible glancing blow from the 12 October CME. Mostly
quiet conditions are expected on UT days 17-18 October.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
15 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
16 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
17 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
18 Oct Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
COMMENT: Normal to fair HF propagation conditions are expected
over the next three UT days, 16-18 October.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
15 Oct 3
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Depressed by 20% during local day.
Depressed by 20% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Sep 24
Oct 29
Nov 33
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
16 Oct 15 Near predicted monthly values
17 Oct 15 Near predicted monthly values
18 Oct 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 15 October were
near predicted monthly values to mildly depressed levels in most
regions. Mild depressions were the aftermath of the recent disturbed
conditions caused by the 9 October CME. MUFs are expected to
recover towards the monthly predicted values over the next three
UT days 16-18 October.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 14 Oct
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 6.7e+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4e+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.70e+06 e/(cm2-ster-day)
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A7.1
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 14 Oct
Speed: 382 km/sec Density: 7.4 p/cc Temp: 40200 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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