[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 28 November 21 issued 2331 UT on 28 Nov 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Mon Nov 29 10:31:05 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/28 NOVEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 28 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 29 NOVEMBER - 01 DECEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 28 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 28 Nov:  92/37


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             29 Nov             30 Nov             01 Dec
Activity     Very low to low    Very low to low    Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    92/37              94/40              94/40

COMMENT: On UT day 28 November, solar activity was very low. 
There are currently four numbered regions on the visible solar 
disc with AR2898 (S24W20, Cao/beta) and AR2900 (S26W34, Dao/beta) 
being the most active. AR2898 has decayed while AR2900 has shown 
some development. Solar activity is expected to be very low to 
low on UT days 29 November to 01 December. No Earth directed 
CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph images. The solar 
wind speed range was 321-417 km/s, the peak total IMF was 17 
nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) range was +/-16 nT. There was 
sustained southward Bz between 0053-0141 UT to -16 nT then the 
IMF began to settle. A further sustained southward Bz period 
has occurred since 2033 UT to -7 nT. The solar wind speed is 
expected be nominal on 29 November. There may be a weak enhancement 
to conditions on 30 November due to a small northern hemisphere 
coronal hole (#25).

-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 28 Nov: Quiet to Active

Estimated Indices 28 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region      10   33322222
      Cocos Island         7   32221222
      Darwin              10   33322222
      Townsville          13   33332233
      Learmonth           13   43332223
      Alice Springs       10   33322222
      Gingin              11   43221223
      Canberra             9   33321222
      Hobart               9   33321122    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 28 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     8   43121012
      Casey               32   65631233
      Mawson              21   45321235

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 28 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               0   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 28 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         7
           Planetary              9                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              3   0000 0003     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
29 Nov     8    Quiet to Unsettled
30 Nov     9    Quiet to Unsettled
01 Dec     7    Quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 28 November, geomagnetic conditions in the 
Australian region were quiet to active. Quiet to storm levels 
were observed in the Antarctic region. Geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to be quiet to unsettled on 29-30 November and quiet 
on 01 December.

-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
29 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
30 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
01 Dec      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions with occasional 
mild degradations are expected on UT days 29 November to 01 December.

-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
28 Nov    20

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Niue Island Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 30%
      at Darwin 01-02 UT.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values. Depressions to 20%
      08-12 UT at Norfolk Is.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values to 20% depressed.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      18
Nov      32
Dec      35

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
29 Nov    20    Near predicted monthly values
30 Nov    20    Near predicted monthly values
01 Dec    20    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 28 November 
were mostly near predicted monthly values. Sporadic E was occasionally 
observed at mid-latitude stations during the afternoon and night 
time. MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values 
with some mild depressions on UT days 29 November to 01 December.

-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 27 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   1.4E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 3.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 5%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: B1.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 27 Nov
Speed: 326 km/sec  Density:    4.7 p/cc  Temp:    38000 K  Bz:  -1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------

Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information.  The views expressed in 
this message are those of the individual sender, unless 
specifically stated to be the views of SWS.  If you are not 
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately 
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments. 
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to 
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.

More information about the ips-dsgr mailing list