[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 27 November 21 issued 2331 UT on 27 Nov 2021

Sun Nov 28 10:31:06 EST 2021

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/27 NOVEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 27 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 28 NOVEMBER - 30 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:** YELLOW **     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 27 Nov:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 27 Nov:  92/37

1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             28 Nov             29 Nov             30 Nov
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    90/34              90/34              92/37

COMMENT: On UT day 27 November, solar activity was very low. 
There are currently three numbered regions on the visible solar 
disc, they all remained relatively stable and quiet. Solar activity 
is expected to be very low on UT days 28-30 November with a chance 
of C-class flares. No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the 
available coronagraph imagery. A large filament in the SW quadrant 
is monitored for any lift. A weak shock observed in the solar 
wind parameters at 27/2155UT suggesting the arrival of the 24 
November DSF CME. The solar wind speed jumped from 300 Km/s to 
385 Km/s, at the same time the total IMF Bt increased from 6 
nT to 14 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) component reached -6 
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to be at mildly enhanced 
levels, today 28 November due continued CME impact and possible 
weak coronal hole effects. Near background to slightly enhanced 
solar wind speed are expected on 29-30 November.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 27 Nov: Quiet to Unsettled

Estimated Indices 27 Nov : A   K           
   Australian Region       3   12110003
      Cocos Island         3   11010013
      Darwin               3   01110013
      Townsville           4   12110013
      Learmonth            3   12110003
      Alice Springs        3   11110003
      Gingin               4   11111103
      Canberra             4   12111003
      Hobart               4   12211003    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 27 Nov :
      Macquarie Island     2   01101002
      Casey               13   34322114
      Mawson               7   22212232

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 27 Nov : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Hobart               2   (Quiet)

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.

Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 27 Nov : A 
           Fredericksburg         6
           Planetary              8                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 26 Nov :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              2   0100 1101     

2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
28 Nov    18    Quiet to active with a chance of an isolated 
                minor storm period.
29 Nov    10    Quiet to Unsettled
30 Nov     7    Mostly quiet

COMMENT: On UT day 27 November, geomagnetic conditions in the 
Australian region were quiet with one isolated unsettled period. 
The unsettled conditions were associated with the 24 November 
CME arrival. Isolated active conditions were observed in the 
Antarctic region. Geomagnetic conditions are expected to be quiet 
to unsettled on UT days 28-29 November with possible active periods 
and a chance of an isolated minor storm period today 28 November 
due to continued CME effects and possible weak coronal hole effects. 
Mostly quiet conditions are expected on 30 November.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
27 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal         

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
28 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
29 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal
30 Nov      Normal         Normal         Normal

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected 
on UT days 28-30 November.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY

Date   T index
27 Nov    13

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values.
   Niue Island Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 15% during local night.
      Depressed by 20% after local dawn.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Mostly near predicted monthly values.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Oct      18
Nov      32
Dec      35

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
28 Nov    20    Near predicted monthly values
29 Nov    20    Near predicted monthly values
30 Nov    20    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 27 November 
were mostly near predicted monthly values. MUFs are expected 
to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days 28-30 November.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 26 Nov
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   6.3E+05
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.5E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 6.10E+07   (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 8%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A9.4

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 26 Nov
Speed: 351 km/sec  Density:    6.6 p/cc  Temp:    23900 K  Bz:   1 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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