[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 09 November 21 issued 2331 UT on 09 Nov 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Nov 10 10:31:15 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/09 NOVEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 09 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 10 NOVEMBER - 12 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 09 Nov: Moderate
Flares Max Fadeout Freq. Sectors
M2/-- 1702UT possible lower South American/
Atlantic
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 09 Nov: 92/37
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
10 Nov 11 Nov 12 Nov
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 92/37 92/37 92/37
COMMENT: On UT day 09 November, solar activity was moderate.
Region 2891, currently behind the west limb, produced a long
duration M2 flare starting at 1547UT, peaking at 1702UT and ending
at 1737UT. SOHO LASCO C2 imagery observed a CME staring 09/1648UT,
it is not expected to be geoeffective. No other Earth directed
CMEs observed in the available satellite imagery. Filament activity
observed in the SW quadrant around 09/1008. Solar activity is
expected to be very low on 10-12 November with a chance of C-class
flares. On UT day 09 November, the solar wind speed showed a
slight increase but remained under 400 Km/s. The total IMF (Bt)
range was 3-6 nT and the north-south IMF (Bz) component range
was +/-5 nT with a mildly disturbed period between 09/1600UT-2000UT.
Solar wind speed is expected to remain near background levels
to slightly enhanced on UT days 10-12 November.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 09 Nov: Quiet
Estimated Indices 09 Nov : A K
Australian Region 3 21101022
Cocos Island 2 11001021
Darwin 3 21001022
Townsville 3 21101022
Learmonth 3 21001022
Alice Springs 3 21001022
Gingin 3 21101022
Canberra 2 11100022
Hobart 4 12111022
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 09 Nov :
Macquarie Island 3 11121012
Casey 9 34221122
Mawson 22 33212165
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 09 Nov :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Hobart 9 (Quiet)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 09 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 5
Planetary 6
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 08 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 3 0001 1122
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
10 Nov 8 Quiet to Unsettled
11 Nov 5 Quiet
12 Nov 5 Quiet
COMMENT: On UT day 09 November, geomagnetic conditions in the
Australian region were at quiet levels. Isolated active and storm
levels were observed in the Antarctic region. Conditions are
expected to be mostly at quiet levels on 10-12 November with
possible isolated unsettled periods.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
09 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
10 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Normal-fair
11 Nov Normal Normal Normal
12 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected
on UT days, 10-12 November. Mildly degraded conditions mostly
at mid and high latitudes may be observed today, 10 November.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
09 Nov 7
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Northern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Southern Australian Region:
Mostly near predicted monthly values.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 18
Nov 32
Dec 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
10 Nov 12 Near predicted monthly values
11 Nov 20 Near predicted monthly values
12 Nov 20 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 09 November
were near monthly predicted values to moderately depressed in
response to the recent magnetic disturbance. MUFs are expected
to continue recovery to near monthly predicted values over the
next three UT days, 10-12 November.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 08 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.4E+06
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.0E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.30E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:12%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 08 Nov
Speed: 403 km/sec Density: 3.7 p/cc Temp: 65300 K Bz: 2 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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