[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 04 November 21 issued 2331 UT on 04 Nov 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Fri Nov 5 10:31:14 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/04 NOVEMBER 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 04 NOVEMBER AND FORECAST FOR 05 NOVEMBER - 07 NOVEMBER
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
-----------------------------------------------------------
1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 04 Nov: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 04 Nov: 94/40
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
05 Nov 06 Nov 07 Nov
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 90/34 85/27 85/27
COMMENT: On UT day 04 November, solar activity was low with a
C3.5 flare at 1055 UT and a C3.0 flare at 1454 UT, both from
the southeast limb. Currently there are 5 numbered regions on
the visible disc, two are spot groups. AR2891 (N19W34, Cao/beta)
has decayed and been quiet, and AR2893 (N21E14, Hsx/alpha) has
been stable and quiet. Solar activity is expected to very low
to low on 05-07 November, although a region over the southeast
limb may increase activity over the coming days. There was a
CME associated with the C5.2 flare at 03/2117 UT which has been
analysed as not being geoeffective. There were two eastward CMEs,
04/0448 UT and 04/1124 UT, which are not expected to be geoeffective.
There was no CME associated with the AR 2891 filament activity
on 03 November. On UT day 04 November, the solar wind speed ranged
between 579 and 844 km/s and seems to be trending down. The total
IMF (Bt) range was 11-23 nT and the northsouth IMF (Bz) component
range has been +11/-18 nT with some extended periods of southward
Bz between 04-12 UT. On 05 November, solar wind parameters are
expected to settle through the day although wind speed may remain
high for a couple of days. Mostly nominal solar wind conditions
are likely 06-07 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 04 Nov: Quiet to Major
Storm
Estimated Indices 04 Nov : A K
Australian Region 32 44565322
Cocos Island 20 43454212
Darwin 27 43564312
Townsville 40 54574323
Learmonth 36 54565323
Alice Springs 31 44565222
Gingin 42 53666313
Canberra 34 43574212
Hobart 36 44665322
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 04 Nov :
Macquarie Island 80 45885422
Casey 42 66563323
Mawson 69 76774322
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 04 Nov :
Darwin 4 (Quiet)
Townsville 13 (Quiet)
Learmonth 20 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 13 (Quiet)
Gingin 58 (Unsettled)
Canberra 62 (Active)
Hobart 93 (Minor storm)
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 04 Nov : A
Fredericksburg 52
Planetary 84
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 03 Nov : A K
Fredericksburg 14
Planetary 14 2110 1136
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
05 Nov 15 Quiet to Active
06 Nov 10 Quiet to Unsettled
07 Nov 7 Quiet
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 36 was issued on 3 November
and is current for 3-5 Nov. Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian
region on UT day 04 November were at quiet to major storm levels
due to CME impacts on 03 and 04 November. There were severe storm
levels at Townsville and Canberra 09-12 UT. In the Antarctic
region quiet to severe storm levels were observed. Conditions
are expected to be at quiet to active levels on 05 November.
Mostly quiet to unsettled conditions are expected on 06-07 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
04 Nov Normal-fair Normal-fair Poor
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
05 Nov Normal Normal-fair Normal-fair
06 Nov Normal Normal Normal-fair
07 Nov Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: HF propagation conditions are expected to be normal
to fair on UT day 05 November with degraded conditions at mid
and high latitudes. Normal to fair conditions likely on 06-07
November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
04 Nov 32
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values. Depressions 20-40%
02-04, 13, 15 UT.
Niue Island Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Northern Australian Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 30% during local night.
Depressions 20-30% 18 UT onwards at Townsville.
Depressions 20-35% 03-04 and 19-20, 23 UT at Darwin.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 40% during local night.
Depressed by 25% after local dawn.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 30% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Oct 18
Nov 32
Dec 35
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
05 Nov 5 Near predicted monthly values with depressions
to 30% at times.
06 Nov 10 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values.
07 Nov 15 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: SWS HF Communications Warning 31 was issued on 4 November
and is current for 5-6 Nov. MUFs in the Australian region on
UT day 04 November were near predicted monthly values to enhanced.
Depressions were observed after about 12 UT, particularly at
mid and high latitude locations. MUFs are likely to be near predicted
monthly values to depressed following the strong geomagnetic
activity on 04 November. MUFs at mid and high latitudes may continue
to be moderately depressed on 06-07 November.
-----------------------------------------------------------
5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 03 Nov
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 5.8E+07
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 2.7E+05
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 5.00E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: B1.7
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 03 Nov
Speed: 533 km/sec Density: 7.0 p/cc Temp: 416000 K Bz: -1 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
-----------------------------------------------------------
Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
IMPORTANT: This e-mail, including any attachments, may contain,
confidential or copyright information. The views expressed in
this message are those of the individual sender, unless
specifically stated to be the views of SWS. If you are not
the intended recipient, please contact the sender immediately
and delete all copies of this e-mail and attachments.
To unsubscribe from an IPS mail list either send an email to
"MAIL_LIST"-leave at ips.gov.au or go to
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/"MAIL_LIST".
Information about training can be obtained from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-training.
General information is available from
http://www.sws.bom.gov.au/mailman/listinfo/ips-info.
More information about the ips-dsgr
mailing list