[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 21 May 21 issued 2330 UT on 21 May 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Sat May 22 09:30:08 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/21 MAY 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 21 MAY AND FORECAST FOR 22 MAY - 24 MAY
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 21 May: Low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 21 May: 74/11
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
22 May 23 May 24 May
Activity Very low to low Very low to low Very low to low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 75/13 75/13 75/13
COMMENT: Solar activity has reached low level on UT day 21 May.
The largest flare was C4.8; it was produced by AR 2824 and peaked
at 21/1928 UT. There is currently one numbered region on the
visible disc of the Sun, AR 2824. There were no Earth directed
CMEs observed in the available coronagraph images. Solar activity
is expected to be very low to low with a little chance of a low
M-class flare for the next three UT days, 22-24 May. On the UT
day 20 May the solar wind speed has decreased from 550 to 490
km/s due to waning coronal hole effects. The IMF (Bt) peaked
at 4 nT and the north-south IMF component (Bz) range was +/-3
nT. The solar wind speed is expected to remain moderately enhanced
on UT day 22 May while gradually decreasing to background levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 21 May: Quiet
Estimated Indices 21 May : A K
Australian Region 4 12221201
Cocos Island 2 11211100
Darwin 3 11221101
Townsville 4 12221201
Learmonth 5 22221210
Alice Springs 4 11221201
Gingin 6 22221320
Canberra 3 12120201
Hobart 5 12231201
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 21 May :
Macquarie Island 7 22241101
Casey 11 33322322
Mawson 17 54432221
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 21 May :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 9 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 21 May : A
Fredericksburg 8
Planetary 10
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 20 May : A K
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 19 3234 4434
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
22 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
23 May 10 Quiet to Unsettled
24 May 7 Quiet
COMMENT: Geomagnetic conditions in the Australian region were
quiet on UT day 21 May. Quiet to minor storm conditions were
observed in the Antarctic region. Quiet to unsettled levels with
possible active periods are expected on UT day 22 May due to
continued coronal hole effects. Quiet to unsettled conditions
on UT day 23 May and quiet conditions on 24 May are expected.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
21 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
22 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
23 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
24 May Normal Normal Normal-fair
COMMENT: Mild to moderate degradations in HF propagation conditions
may occur on UT day 22 May. Then mostly normal HF propagation
conditions are expected on UT days 23-24 May.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
21 May 16
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
Depressed by 15% during local day.
Near predicted monthly values during local night.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Depressed by 25% over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Apr 12
May 21
Jun 24
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
22 May 5 Near predicted monthly values/depressed 10 to
30%
23 May 7 Near predicted monthly values
24 May 10 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: MUFs in the Australian region on UT day 21 May were
mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions
in the Niue Island region during the local day. For 22-24 May,
MUFs are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values;
mild to moderate depressions are possible on UT day 22 May.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 20 May
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 1.3E+05
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.50E+06 (normal fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability: 1%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.8
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 20 May
Speed: 436 km/sec Density: 11.2 p/cc Temp: 214000 K Bz: -3 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
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