[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 17 March 21 issued 2330 UT on 17 Mar 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Thu Mar 18 10:30:08 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/17 MARCH 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 17 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 18 MARCH - 20 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:** YELLOW ** ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 17 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 17 Mar: 78/17
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
18 Mar 19 Mar 20 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 78/17 78/17 76/14
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 17 March. There
are currently three numbered regions on the visible disk; 2808
(N19W31), 2809 (S21W62) and 2810 (N21E52). Solar activity is
expected to be very low for the next three UT days 18-20 March.
No Earth directed CMEs were observed in the available coronagraph
images. The solar wind speed continued decreasing from 390 km/s
down to 320 km/s. The total IMF (Bt) peaked at 8 nT; the north-south
IMF (Bz) was in the range +/-5 nT. Solar wind speed is expected
to be at background levels on UT days 18-19 March. However a
Southern Polar coronal hole with low latitude extensions will
become geoeffective with the CIR arriving from late on UT day
19 March. The HSS from the coronal hole is expected to follow
on UT day 20 March, elevating the solar wind speed from moderately
to strongly enhanced levels.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 17 Mar: Quiet
Estimated Indices 17 Mar : A K
Australian Region 3 22001210
Cocos Island 2 11100210
Darwin 3 21001211
Townsville 4 22101211
Learmonth 4 22102210
Alice Springs 3 22001211
Gingin 3 22001220
Canberra 3 22000210
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 17 Mar :
Macquarie Island 4 22001310
Casey 10 34321221
Mawson 8 42111321
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 17 Mar :
Darwin 0 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 0 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 17 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 3
Planetary 5
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A K
Fredericksburg 2
Planetary 2 0100 1000
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
18 Mar 7 Quiet
19 Mar 15 Quiet to Active
20 Mar 20 Active with the possibility of a G1 minor storm
COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed in the Australian region
on UT day 17 March. Quiet to unsettled levels with two active
periods were observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic
conditions are expected to be mostly quiet on UT day 18 March
and initially on UT day 19 March. However a large Southern Polar
coronal hole with low latitude extensions will become geoeffective
with the CIR possibly arriving from late on UT day 19 March,
causing unsettled to active conditions. The HSS from the coronal
hole is expected to follow on UT day 20 March, causing active
conditions with the possibility of a G1 minor storm.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
17 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
18 Mar Normal Normal Normal
19 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
20 Mar Normal Normal-fair Fair
COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected on UT days
18-19 March. Some mild to moderate degradation in HF conditions
are likely on UT day 20 March.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
17 Mar 8
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
No data available.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -1
Mar 16
Apr 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
18 Mar 10 Near predicted monthly values
19 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values
20 Mar -15 15 to 20% below predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 17 March, MUFs in the Australian region were
mostly near predicted monthly values. Sporadic E was observed
at times at some stations. MUFs in the Australian region are
expected to be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days
18-19 March. Mild to moderate MUF depressions are likely on UT
day 20 March in response to forecast geomagnetic activity.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 16 Mar
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.7E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.4E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.80E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:14%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A4.3
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 16 Mar
Speed: 389 km/sec Density: 3.8 p/cc Temp: 76400 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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