[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 16 March 21 issued 2330 UT on 16 Mar 2021

Regional Warning Centre rwc at ips.gov.au
Wed Mar 17 10:30:07 EST 2021 

SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/16 MARCH 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 16 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 17 MARCH - 19 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN   MAG:GREEN     ION: GREEN
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 16 Mar:  Very low

Flares: none.

Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 16 Mar:  79/19


1B. SOLAR FORECAST
             17 Mar             18 Mar             19 Mar
Activity     Very low           Very low           Very low
Fadeouts     None expected      None expected      None expected
10.7cm/SSN    78/17              78/17              78/17

COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 16 March. There 
are currently three numbered regions on the visible disk; 2808 
(N18W19), 2809 (S21W48) and 2810 (N19E63). Region 2808 produced 
another B3 flare at 16/2026UT. Solar activity is expected to 
be very low for the next three UT days 17-19 March with a small 
chance of a C-class flare. There was a CME observed in the Lasco 
and Stereo-A coronagraph images at 16/10UT but it appears to 
be a far side event and not geoeffective. No other CMEs were 
observed in the available LASCO coronagraph images. The solar 
wind speed continued decreasing from 430 km/s down to 360 km/s 
due to waning coronal hole effects. The total IMF (Bt) peaked 
at 4 nT; the north-south IMF (Bz) was in the range +3/-2 nT. 
Solar wind speed is expected to be at background levels today 
17 March initially. However on UT day 17 March a Northern Polar 
coronal hole with low latitude extensions may become geoeffective 
causing slight enhancements in the the solar wind speed on UT 
days 17-18 March. The solar wind speed is expected to be near 
background levels again on UT day 19 March.

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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY

Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 16 Mar: Quiet

Estimated Indices 16 Mar : A   K           
   Australian Region       0   10000100
      Cocos Island         0   10000100
      Darwin               1   10001101
      Townsville           2   11011101
      Learmonth            1   11001110
      Alice Springs        0   00000100
      Gingin               1   10000200
      Canberra             0   00000100    

Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 16 Mar :
      Macquarie Island     0   00000000
      Casey                4   22210210
      Mawson               5   22110231

Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 16 Mar : 
      Darwin               0   (Quiet)
      Townsville           0   (Quiet)
      Learmonth            0   (Quiet)
      Alice Springs        0   (Quiet)
      Gingin               0   (Quiet)
      Canberra             0   (Quiet)
      Melbourne           NA

Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations 
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum 
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data. 

NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in 
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia, 
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government 
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather 
Science and Education, Japan.


Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 16 Mar : A 
           Fredericksburg         3
           Planetary              4                         

Observed AFr/Ap Indices 15 Mar :  A   K
           Fredericksburg         5
           Planetary              5   3212 1101     


2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST 
Date      Ap    Conditions
17 Mar     8    Quiet to Unsettled
18 Mar    10    Quiet to Unsettled
19 Mar     8    Mostly quiet with possible unsettled periods

COMMENT: Quiet conditions were observed in the Australian region 
on UT day 16 March. Quiet levels with one unsettled period were 
observed in the Antarctic region. Global geomagnetic conditions 
are expected to be quiet to unsettled on UT days 17-18 March, 
due to a Northern Polar coronal hole with low latitude extensions 
that may become geoeffective. Mostly quiet conditions with possible 
unsettled periods are expected on UT day 19 March.

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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
16 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair    

PCA Event : No event.

3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
	            Latitude Band
Date        Low            Middle         High 
17 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
18 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair
19 Mar      Normal         Normal         Normal-fair

COMMENT: Mostly normal HF conditions are expected on UT days 
17-19 March.

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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY


Date   T index
16 Mar     1

Observed Australian Regional MUFs
   Cocos Island Region:
      No data available.
   Niue Island Region:
      No data available.
   Northern Australian Region:
      Depressed by 15% during local day.
      Near predicted monthly values during local night.
   Southern Australian Region:
      Near predicted monthly values during local day.
      Depressed by 20% during local night.
   Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
      Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.

Monthly T index:
Month  T index
Feb      -1
Mar      16
Apr      20

4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date   T index  MUFs
17 Mar     5    Near predicted monthly values
18 Mar     0    Near predicted monthly values
19 Mar     0    Near predicted monthly values

COMMENT: On UT day 16 March, MUFs in the Australian region were 
mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild depressions. 
Sporadic E was observed at times at some stations. MUFs in the 
Australian region are expected to be mostly near predicted monthly 
values on UT days 17-19 March.

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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY

GOES satellite data for 15 Mar
       Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV:   5.7E+04
       Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV:  4.4E+04
       Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.40E+08   (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:13%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
       X-ray background: A4.0

DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 15 Mar
Speed: 475 km/sec  Density:    5.6 p/cc  Temp:   177000 K  Bz:   0 nT

(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services              email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386                         WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240  AUSTRALIA       FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010                fax: +61 2 9213 8060 

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