[Ips-dsgr] SWS Daily Report - 01 March 21 issued 2330 UT on 01 Mar 2021
Regional Warning Centre
rwc at ips.gov.au
Tue Mar 2 10:30:08 EST 2021
SUBJ: SWS DAILY SOLAR AND GEOPHYSICAL REPORT
ISSUED AT 2330UT/01 MARCH 2021 BY Space Weather Services
FROM THE AUSTRALIAN SPACE FORECAST CENTRE
SUMMARY FOR 01 MARCH AND FORECAST FOR 02 MARCH - 04 MARCH
STATUS INDICATORS SOL:GREEN MAG:GREEN ION: ** YELLOW **
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1A. SOLAR SUMMARY
Activity 01 Mar: Very low
Flares: none.
Observed 10.7 cm flux/Equivalent Sunspot Number for 01 Mar: 71/6
1B. SOLAR FORECAST
02 Mar 03 Mar 04 Mar
Activity Very low Very low Very low
Fadeouts None expected None expected None expected
10.7cm/SSN 71/6 71/6 70/5
COMMENT: Solar activity was very low on UT day 1 March. AR2804
has rotated around the western limb of the Sun and there are
currently no spotted regions on the visible disk. Solar activity
is expected to be very low for the next three UT days 2-4 March.
There was a CME seen in Stereo-A and Lasco images at 01/1300UT
from the western limb, but based on the location and the CME
projection it is unlikely to impact Earth. No other CMEs were
observed in the available coronagraph images. On 1 March, the
solar wind speed increased from 380 km/s to a maximum of 540
km/s at 09UT in response to a coronal hole HSS. Then the solar
wind speed decreased down to 360 km/s and is currently at 370
km/s. The total IMF (Bt) peaked at 14 nT at about 03UT and the
north-south component of the IMF (Bz) range was +8/-14 nT with
a mostly southwards Bz component during 01/00-05 UT. The solar
wind speed is expected to remain at mildly to moderately enhanced
levels today (UT day 2 March) in response to a Southern Polar
coronal hole. Solar wind speed is expected to decline from UT
day 3 March as the coronal hole begins to wane.
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2A. MAGNETIC SUMMARY
Geomagnetic field for Australian Region 01 Mar: Quiet to Active
Estimated Indices 01 Mar : A K
Australian Region 14 34342231
Cocos Island 11 33332231
Darwin 12 33342221
Townsville 14 34342222
Learmonth 17 34342341
Alice Springs 11 23342221
Gingin 16 34342241
Canberra 11 23342221
Hobart 18 2444224-
Estimated Antarctic Regional K Indices 01 Mar :
Macquarie Island 30 35563421
Casey 14 34432222
Mawson 69 47633384
Observed Regional daily pc3 Indices 01 Mar :
Darwin 10 (Quiet)
Townsville 0 (Quiet)
Learmonth 0 (Quiet)
Alice Springs 0 (Quiet)
Gingin 2 (Quiet)
Canberra 0 (Quiet)
Melbourne NA
Pc3 pulsations are high frequency (10-45 second period) variations
of the Earths magnetic field. Daily pc3-indices are the daily sum
of 20 minute pc3-indices for that station and have been shown to be
well correlated with rejection of high resolution aeromagnetic
survey flight-line data.
NOTE: Indices may have been generated from data obtained in
cooperation with the following organisations: Geoscience Australia,
University of Newcastle Space Physics Group, Australian Government
Antarctic Division and International Center for Space Weather
Science and Education, Japan.
Estimated AFr/Ap Indices 01 Mar : A
Fredericksburg 17
Planetary 26
Observed AFr/Ap Indices 28 Feb : A K
Fredericksburg 4
Planetary 5 0210 1133
2B. MAGNETIC FORECAST
Date Ap Conditions
02 Mar 15 Unsettled to Active
03 Mar 10 Quiet to Unsettled
04 Mar 7 Quiet
COMMENT: SWS Geomagnetic Warning 8 was issued on 28 February
and is current for 1-2 Mar. On UT day 1 March, quiet to active
conditions were observed in the Australian region. Quiet to storm
levels were observed in the Antarctic region. On UT day 2 March
geomagnetic activity is expected to be mostly unsettled with
a chance of active conditions due to coronal hole effects. Quiet
to unsettled levels are expected on UT day 3 March with mostly
quiet conditions on UT day 4 March.
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3A. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION SUMMARY
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
01 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
PCA Event : No event.
3B. GLOBAL HF PROPAGATION FORECAST
Latitude Band
Date Low Middle High
02 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
03 Mar Normal Normal Normal-fair
04 Mar Normal Normal Normal
COMMENT: Mostly normal to fair HF propagation conditions are
expected UT days 2-3 March due to the recent geomagnetic activity.
Mostly normal HF propagation conditions are expected on UT day
4 March.
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4A. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC SUMMARY
Date T index
01 Mar 9
Observed Australian Regional MUFs
Cocos Island Region:
Enhanced by 20% during local day.
Enhanced by 35% during local night.
Enhanced by 20% after local dawn.
Niue Island Region:
No data available.
Northern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 15% during local night.
Southern Australian Region:
Near predicted monthly values during local day.
Depressed by 25% during local night.
Antarctic Region (Casey/Scott Base/Davis/Mawson):
Near predicted monthly values over the UT day.
Monthly T index:
Month T index
Feb -1
Mar 16
Apr 20
4B. AUSTRALIAN REGION IONOSPHERIC FORECAST
Date T index MUFs
02 Mar -10 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
03 Mar -5 Depressed 15%/near predicted monthly values
04 Mar 5 Near predicted monthly values
COMMENT: On UT day 1 March, MUFs in the Australian region were
mostly near predicted monthly values with some mild to moderate
depressions during the local night. Sporadic E layers were observed,
strong at times. MUFs in the Australian region are expected to
be mostly near predicted monthly values on UT days 2-3 March
with some possible mild depressions in response to the recent
geomagnetic activity. MUFs in the Australian region should be
near predicted monthly values on UT day 4 March.
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5. SPACE ENVIRONMENT SUMMARY
GOES satellite data for 28 Feb
Daily Proton Fluence >1 MeV: 7.6E+04
Daily Proton Fluence >10 MeV: 4.5E+04
Daily Electron Fluence >2 MeV: 1.10E+08 (moderate fluence)
Electron Fluence Daily Deep Dielectric Discharge Probability:11%
Fluence (flux accumulation over 24hrs)/ cm2-ster-day.
X-ray background: A5.2
DSCOVR Satellite Solar Wind Day Averaged Data for 28 Feb
Speed: 367 km/sec Density: 6.7 p/cc Temp: 60300 K Bz: 0 nT
(Courtesy Space Weather Prediction Center, Boulder USA)
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Space Weather Services email: asfc at bom.gov.au
Bureau of Meteorology
PO Box 1386 WWW: http://www.sws.bom.gov.au
Haymarket NSW 1240 AUSTRALIA FTP: ftp://ftp-out.sws.bom.gov.au
tel: +61 2 9213 8010 fax: +61 2 9213 8060
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